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1、ABGlobalResearch27July2018EquitiesEngineering&ConstructionHeavyMachineryAmericasQ2preview:Ontheedgeofaninflection?Q2earningscouldbecatalystforstockstoregainmomentumWeexpectgenerallypositiveQ2reportsformostE&Cs,butthink2Hwillbebetterthan1Handexpectmanagementcommentaryalongth
2、oselines.Wethinkthesectorisnearaninflectionpoint(intermsofbackloggrowth)givenitslatecycleexposure,butdonotthinkthatinflectionpointwasinQ2(weseeitmorelikelyinQ4/early2019).P/EmultipleshavecontractedsinceQ1earnings,despitemodestupwardFY19EPSrevisions,andweseethepotentialforst
3、ockstoregainmomentumduringQ2reports.Aggregatebacklogtodeclineslightly,butnearaninflectionpointInaggregate,weexpectbacklogtodeclineslightlyfromQ1.Atthecompanylevel,weonlyexpectsequentialbackloggrowthforKBR(addingSGTbacklogbutwealsoexpectHydrocarbonbacklogtoinflect)andJEC.Tha
4、tsaid,wethinkenergyexposedbacklogisnearaninflectionpoint.WethinkFLR’sbacklogwillreachatroughthisquarterandbelieveMDR’sbacklogwillimprovein2Handinto2019.Wealsoremainconfidentincontinuedfederalservicesbackloggrowth,butthinkcivilinfrastructureexposurewillturnmoreintoabacklogbu
5、rnstoryinthenear-term(TPC,ACM’sCSsegment).KeydebatesandwhatwearelookingforinQ2KeydebatesforthesectorremainwhetherE&Cscanexecuteonfixedpricecontracts(lookingforupdatesonproblemprojectsatMDR,FLR,ACM,KBR–weassumenonewcharges);whetherE&Cscanmakelargeacquisitionswork(lookingfori
6、ntegrationupdates/synergyrealizationatMDR,JEC,KBR);andwhetherenergycapexwillinflect(weexpectmoreactiveFIDsandprojectawardsin2H,particularlyinLNGandmining).WelikeKBR,ACM,FLRintoQ2;MDR&TPCrisky;buyanyPWR,JECweaknessWelikeKBR,ACMandFLRintoQ2;wearecautiousonMDRandTPC(lackofcons
7、ensusestimatesforMDRandCB&Ilegacyproblemprojects;legalclaimoutcomesforTPC);however,highshortinterestinbothnamescouldresultinasqueezeonpositivesurprises.Therewasdebateintra-qtronwhetherJECwouldhitconsensus(ourestimateisbelow),andwhetherPWRwouldmissonpermitdelays(wethinkso).B
8、othstockscouldbeattractivepostquarter.PWRrisklookspricedin.WethinkKBRismostlikelyt
