短期能源展望（2018.10）（英文）

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1、October2018Short-TermEnergyOutlook(STEO)ForecasthighlightsWinterFuelsOutlook·EIAforecaststhataverageU.S.householdexpendituresformostmajorhomeheatingfuelswillbehigherthiswintercomparedwithlastwinter.Averageincreasesvarybyfuel;naturalgasexpendituresareforecasttor

2、iseby5%,homeheatingoilby20%,andelectricityby3%,whilepropaneexpendituresareforecasttoremainsimilartolastyear.Mostoftheincreasereflectshigherforecastenergyprices.U.S.averageheatingdegreedaysareexpectedtobe1%higherthanlastwinter.However,realizedexpendituresarehigh

3、lydependentonactualweatheroutcomes(WinterFuelsOutlook).·EIAexpectsnaturalgasinventoriestoendOctoberatthelowestlevelsforthattimeofyearsince2005.Inventoriesofdistillatefuelandpropanearealsobelowthefive-year(2013–17)averageinseveralregions.Althoughinventorylevelsa

4、relow,EIAexpectsfuelsuppliestobeadequatetomeetwinterdemand.Globalliquidfuels·Brentcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$79perbarrel(b)inSeptember,up$6/bfromAugust.EIAexpectsBrentspotpriceswillaverage$74/bin2018and$75/bin2019.EIAexpectsWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpri

5、ceswillaverageabout$6/blowerthanBrentpricesin2018andin2019.NYMEXWTIfuturesandoptionscontractvaluesforJanuary2019deliverythattradedduringthefive-dayperiodendingOctober4,2018,suggestarangeof$60/bto$93/bencompassesthemarketexpectationforJanuaryWTIpricesatthe95%con

6、fidencelevel.·EIAestimatesthatU.S.crudeoilproductionaveraged11.1millionbarrelsperday(b/d)inSeptember,upslightlyfromAugustlevels.EIAforecaststhatU.S.crudeoilproductionwillaverage10.7millionb/din2018,upfrom9.4millionb/din2017,andwillaverage11.8millionb/din2019.Na

7、turalgas·EIAestimatesdrynaturalgasproductionintheUnitedStatesaveraged85.1billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)inSeptember,up0.6Bcf/dfromAugust.EIAforecaststhatdrynaturalgasproductionwillaverage82.7Bcf/din2018,upby7.9Bcf/dfrom2017andU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

8、S

9、hort-TermEnergyOutlookOctober20181establishinganewrecordhigh.EIAexpectsnaturalgasproductionwillcontinuetorisein2019toanaverageof87.7Bcf/d.·EIAforecaststhatU.S.naturalgasstor