全球航空航班分析

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1、COREAftermarketUpdateFleetDynamics&AirlineSchedulesFavorable,ButFuel/CompsWarrantCautionOuranalysisofglobalairlineflightschedulesindicatesstrong7%flighthourgrowththroughQ418asairlinesonaglobalbasishaven’tyetmademeaningfuladjustmentsINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Aerospace&DefensePOSI

2、TIVEUnchangedU.S.Aerospace&DefenseDavidStrauss+12125265580EquityResearch10October2018onhigherfuel/strongerUSD.Wethinkthisalongwithafavorablefleetmixcontinuestobodewellfortheaftermarket,althoughhighfuelandincreasinglydifficultcompsbeginninginQ4warrantsomecaution.Wethinkun

3、derlyingfleetdynamicsoverthenextseveralyearsbetterinsulatetheaftermarketfromtheimpactofhigherfuelthaninthepast,namelyhighergrowthoutoftheinstalledbaseofolderout-of-warrantyfleetrelativetotheyoungin-warrantyfleet.Assumingmidsingledigitflighthourgrowthfromhere,weforecastlow

4、doubledigitaftermarketgrowthinthe2H(vs13%in1H)andhighsingledigitgrowthin2019-20.Weestimatethatyoung(in-warranty,0-5yearold)fleetgrowthhaspeakedandwillslowoverthenextseveralyearswhileolderaircraft(out-of-warranty)fleetgrowthinflectshigherastheseaircraftagetolevelsthatgener

5、atehigheraftermarketdemand.Specifically,weestimatethatthefleetofout-of-warranty(6+yearsold)aircraftwillgrow4%+in2018-20,doubletherateofthelastseveralyears,atthesametimethatin-warranty(0-5yearsold)fleetgrowthhaspeakedandslowsby100-200bps.Theaftermarketshouldalsocontinuetob

6、enefitfrominitialprovisioningonnewaircrafttypes(A350/A320neo/737MAX).Globalflightschedulesindicateoverallnarrowbodyflighthourgrowthat7-8%,~200bpsaheadofwidebody.Byenginemanufacturer,weestimateflighthoursaregrowingfastestforRollsRoyce(11-12%)drivenbyTrent,followedbySafran(

7、8-9%)drivenbyLEAP,withinlinegrowthatGEandbelowmarketgrowthatPratt&Whitney(~3%).TDG(Overweight)istheprimarybeneficiaryofcontinuedaftermarketstrength,whichwethinkwillallowittocontinuetooutgrowitspeerseveninahigherinterestrateenvironment.Whilewedon’tseeTDGgrowingasfastasinth

8、epastwhenitoutgrewitspeersby2x,webelievethisisreflectedincurrentvaluationwithTDGtradingatasmalle