全球-宏观策略-熊市进入最后堡垒:增长

全球-宏观策略-熊市进入最后堡垒:增长

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时间:2018-10-30

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1、October15,201809:37AMGMTMorganStanleyGlobalMacroForumTheRollingBearMarketHitstheLastBastion:GrowthOctober15,2018AndrewSheets–ChiefCross-AssetStrategist/StrategistMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+MichaelWilson–ChiefUSEquityStrategistandChiefInvestmentOfficerofInstitutiona

2、lSecurities&WealthManagement/EquityStrategistEllenZentner–ChiefUSEconomist/EconomistVishwanathTirupattur–HeadofUSFixedIncomeResearch/StrategistMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCVishwanathTirupatturisafixedincomestrategistandisnotopiningonequitysecurities.EllenZentnerisaneconomistandis

3、notopiningonanysecurities.Theirviewsareclearlydelineated.Duetothenatureofthefixedincomemarket,theissuersorbondsoftheissuersrecommendedordiscussedinthisreportmaynotbecontinuouslyfollowed.Accordingly,investorsmustregardthisreportasprovidingstand-aloneanalysisandshouldnotexp

4、ectcontinuinganalysisoradditionalreportsrelatingtosuchissuersorbondsoftheissuers.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStan

5、leyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwit

6、hFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.MichaelWilsonChiefUSEquityStrategist&CIOofMorganStanleyWealthManagementandInstitution

7、alSecuritiesOvertheLastMonth,USLargeCapStocksAretheOnlyAssetClassOutperformingCPIRankingAug-18Latest1Russell2000S&P5002S&P500Russell20003REITSUSHY4USHYUS2Yr5US2YrCommodities6USAgg.BondGlobalHY7MSCIJapanUSAgg.Bond8US10YrUSIG9GlobalHYUS10Yr10USIGMSCIJapan11MSCIEuropeREITS12

8、InflationBondsInflationBonds13CommoditiesEM$SovCredit14EM$SovCreditEMLocalDebt15MSCIEMMSCIEurope

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