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1、12October2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchTransportationTransportsQ3PreviewResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWAllisonM.Landry2123253716allison.landry@credit-suisse.comNothingCompares2U(PSR);MarketRolloverSamanthaYellenCreatesEntryPointinRails2123257451samantha.yellen
2、@credit-suisse.com■TransportStocksRollingOver;OpptytoBoardthePSRTrain:TheBrianWrightTransportshaverolledoverinthelasttwodays,withtherails2125381855underperforming-whichmakessenseasit’sbeeneveryone’sfavoritego-brian.wright@credit-suisse.comtosub-sector,andafavoritein
3、Industrials.Theaveragetransportstockwasdown~6%inthelasttwodays,theworstperformancewe'veseeninquitesometime.Thatsaid,we’rejustnotseeinganyreasontogetlessbullishontherailsrightnow.Forone,demandisgood,andcapacityremainsverytight-sowedon’tthinkpricinghasyetpeaked.Butmor
4、eimportantlywethinkwe’reabouttogetarealglimpseatthepowerofthePSRmodel.TherewasstillroomforthestockstorunasofTuesday,andsonowwethinkinvestorshaveanattractiveentrypointinrails-particularlythosewhothoughttheymissedit.■CSX–BuytheStock,Today:WeexpectameaningfulQ3beatatCS
5、X($0.98vscons$0.93),butwhatwethinkismoreimportantistheevidencethatisbeingborneoutintheabsoluteservicemetrics(y/ycompsnotevenrelevantatthispoint)andrecentcost/GTMtrends(whichstandinstarkcontrasttoNSC)thatthere’salotmoreupsidefromPSRthanwhatmaybecurrentlyunderstood.Ve
6、locitycontinuestoriseinspiteofanaccelerationofvolumes,whichisdrivingsubstantialimprovementinnetworkfluidity.Inturn,CSXisabletotakeonevenmorevolumeatamuchlowercost.AndaswethinkaboutthisinconjunctionwiththenotableaccelerationinmerchandisevolsinQ3,themarginimprovementi
7、slikelytobetremendous-andanindicationofwhat'stocome.■UNPQ3Miss,BuyonWeakness:WeexpectaQ3missatUNP($2.05vsthe$2.09consensus),drivenbycongestionissuesthatmaybeworsethantheservicemetricssuggest.Ourviewisbasedonchannelchecksthroughoutthequarter,whichhaveindicatedthatthe
8、networksnagshavebecomeincreasinglyproblematic(andparticularlyacuteinTX).ThemarketmayverywellbrushoffaQ3miss,buttotheextentthatweareright,i
