中国风电场运营：补贴赤字缓和；长期的电网平价.docx

《中国风电场运营：补贴赤字缓和；长期的电网平价.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、ABGlobalResearch1November2018EquitiesChinaElectricUtilitiesKenLiuAnalystken.liu@ubs.com+852-29717516AlexLiuAnalystS1460515080001alex-c.liu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668857SimonPowellAnalystsimon.powell@ubs.com+852-29717772AbigailSunAnalystS1460518040002abigail.

2、sun@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668637ChineseWindFarmOperatorsSubsidydeficitstoease;gridparityinthelongtermReiterateBuysonChinesewindfarms;marketoverlycautiousontariffnewsChinesewindfarmoperatorshaveunderperformedinrecentmonths—theirsharepriceshavedropped25%onave

3、rage,underperformingtheMSCIChinaby6pptsinceAugust.Valuationsareclosetoahistoricaltrough;wethinkthisislargelydrivenbyconcernsontariffsubsidiesforbothnewandexistingprojects.Webelievenewprojectsarelikelytoachievegridparity(nosubsidies)andbeprofitableby2020,whileex

4、istingprojects'tariffsubsidydeficitsarelikelytoeaseasthegovernmenthasthreesustainablelong-termsolutions.OurtoppickisChinaLongyuanPower(Longyuan).Renewablegridparity—newprojectsontracktobeprofitableex-subsidiesBasedonouranalysisinAlexLiu'sChinaRenewableEnergyrep

5、ort,Chinahasalreadyachievedend-usersidesolar/windgridparity(solar/windpowercostsbelowtheend-userpowersalesprice)in2016,andwilleventuallyachievelevel1(solar/windpowercostsbelowcoal-firedpowertariffs)andlevel2(solar/windpowercostsbelowcoal-firedpowercosts)supply-

6、sidegridparityin2019and2021-22,respectively.Wethinkreducinginstallationcostsiskeytoachievingthese,andweexpectsolar/windinstallationcoststofall40%/16%in2018-20,mainlyduetolowercostsforsolarmodules,inverters,balanceofsystems,windturbines,andinstallation.Threesolu

7、tionstoeasethesubsidydeficitsAggregatingourpreviouslypublishedanalysis,weestimatethatcollectingtheoverduerenewableenergysurchargesfromend-users(mostlyindustrialuserswithcaptivepowerplants)canresolve50%ofthesubsidydeficits,thelaunchofgreencertificatetradingcanre

8、solvearound20%,whilecarbontradingcanresolvearound30%atthemost.Theseareallsustainablesolutions,inourview.ReiteratingourpositivestanceonthesectorTradingat0.7x12-monthforwardP/