新加坡REITs：使用基于资本回报的估值方法来识别错误定价

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1、MagicMultiplesandSingaporeREITsUsingreturnoncapital-basedvaluationmethodologiestoidentifymispricingAsiaPacificEquityResearch02April2019Historically,SREITstrademoreonreturnsofcapitalratherthanunderlingassetvalues,withP/BsvsROEsshowingaveragehistoricalcorrelationof0.95andR2of0.91.Thisimplie

2、sSREITstrademorelikeBankswiththemostefficientuserofcapitalbeingawardedthehighestvaluation.Inthisreport,weusereturn-on-capitalbasedvaluationmethodologiestoidentifypotentialmispricing.BasedonouranalysiswemoveAREITtotoppick,reiterateourpreferenceforCCT>KREIT/SUNandhighlightpotentialoutperform

3、anceforCT.·Usingreturnoncapital-basedmethodologies.Stockswiththemostimpliedupsidetocurrentsharepricesusingareturn-on-capitalbasedmethodologyareCT(N)andAREIT(OW).MostdownsideisforMCT(OW)andMLT(OW).Ourback-testinganalysisshowsaverageone-yearoutperformancevsFSTREIof8.1%ifweinvestedinthestockw

4、ithmostimpliedupsideineachofthepastfiveyears.Thissuggestspotentialoutperformance/upsideforCT.However,onfundamentals,wethinkweaker-than-expectedperformanceforFunancouldweighonCT’sperformance.WearemorebullishonthefundamentaloutlookforAREIT.Thismethodologyispooreratpredictingunderperformance,

5、potentiallyasitdoesnotfactorinaccretionfromanticipatedacquisitions/portfoliorejuvenationetc.,keydriversforOWratingsonMCT/MLT.·ImpliedgrowthratessupportourpreferenceforAREITandCCT.FromourFY21ROEestimates,wehavederivedthelong-termgrowthrateimpliedbyeachSREIT’scurrentshareprice.Theresultspoin

6、ttomoreattractivevaluationsforCCT(OW)>SUN(N)&KREIT(OW),CT(N)>MCT(OW)SingaporeConglomeratesandPropertyFraserSmithAC(65)6882-2518fraser.smith@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedTerenceMKhiAC(65)6882-1518terence.ml.khi@jpmchase.comBloombergJPMATKHIJ.P.MorganSecurities

7、SingaporePrivateLimitedCussonLeung,CFA(852)2800-8526cusson.leung@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedAjayMirchandani(65)6882-2419ajay.mirchandani@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedFigure1:Returnoncapitalimpliedupsidebasedon