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1、ABGlobalResearch5April2019Semi-AnnualInsuranceAgentSurveyUBSEvidenceLabinside:Pricingremainsstable;agentsdon'tforeseemuchchangeMarketstabilitypersistsincommerciallines,likelykeepingpacewithlosstrendInthenintheditionofUBSEvidenceLab'ssemi-annualagentsurvey,11
2、5agenciessellingcommercialinsuranceindicatedthatpricinginthelinewasupmodestlyfromthepriorsurvey,reflectingq/qincreasesinbothpropertyandcasualtyto+4.3%and+3.9%,respectively.Lookingahead,agentsdonotanticipateamajorshiftineitherlineoverthenextsixmonths,withprici
3、ngexpectedtoremaininthe3%to4%range.Importantly,mostcompaniespointtolosstrendinthe2-5%range,thusthesurveyresultssuggestpricingcurrentlyapproximateslosscostsandindustrymarginsshouldbestabley/y.Wenotethatagentsinthesurveyaremorelikelytoincludethebenefitsfromexpo
4、sure,whichwebelieveexplainsthevariancetoindicesthatshowrate~2%Workers'compiscompetitive,butpricingnotasdireasratefilingssuggestWhenaskedtodescribeworkers'compensationpricingoverthepastsixmonths,themostcommonresponsewas"flattoup2%"andtheweightedaveragepricecha
5、ngewas+1.1%.Whileweexpectmarginstocompressatthispricinglevel,theresultshouldbefarlessdramaticthanpublicratefilingsfromtheNCCIandotherstateagencieswouldindicate.AstheChiefActuaryattheNCCIexplainedonourconferencecallinFebruary,companieshavesubstantialflexibilit
6、ytodeviatefromheadlinefilingsinmoststatesthroughtheuseofinvestmentassumptionsandprofitloads.Wealsoassumethesurveyresultsincorporateexposure,whichmostcompanieshavepointedtoasapositiveoffsettoratedeclines.Agentsinthesurveyalsoseestabilityoverthenextsixmos.Thisi
7、spositiveforHIG,whichisthemostleveragedtoWCinourcoverage.PIautopricingdecelerates,asexpected;buthomeowners'modestlylower,tooPersonalautopricingexpectationsfellbelow+3%tothelowestlevelsincethemid-year2016surveywhenseverityissueswereemerging.Pricingdeceleration
8、wasexpectedgivenbetterprofitabilityin2018andincreasingcompetitionduetobenignfrequency.Wenotethatindustrypricingiscurrentlybelowourviewoflosstrendandgivenheightenedconcernincreasingphysica