新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场利率：持有当日固定收益率

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1、GlobalEmergingMarketsFixedIncomeRatesSeekingshelterinfront-endEMRates:CarrythedayTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)uCapturethecarryatthefront-endofthecurveuInEMhighyielders,wefavour

2、localbondsinRussia,MexicoandIndonesiauOurconvictioncallindurationexposureliesinChinaEasinggainstractionEMpolicyeasingisgainingtraction.AndintheUS,notonlyistheFedsettokeepratesonholdthisyearbutalsoitsbalancesheetreductionprogrammewillcometoanendinSeptember.Thismeansthecarr

3、ycharacteristicsofEMlocalgovernmentbondsarebecomingmoreappealing.ThecatalystforallthisthoughisaglobaleconomicslowdownwiththelatestinversionofUSTreasurycurvesuggestingrisksofaneventualUSrecession.Thisencouragesustoavoidtoomuchdurationandweseebettervalueatthefront-endofthel

4、ocalratescurveinmostEMs.ThecreditriskpremiuminlocalbondyieldsmayalsobegintomovehigherwithacrowdedeventcalendarstartinginApril,whichagainarguesagainsttakingdurationexposureinhigh-yieldingmarkets.Foreignflows–thetidehascautiouslyturnedThetideofforeignflowsintoEMbondshasturn

5、edatthestartof2019.Thisappearstohavebeendrivenbyexpectationsoffixedincomegainsbutalackofappetiteforcurrencyrisks.TherehavebeeninflowsofUSD16.3bnintoEMhardcurrencybondssincethebeginningofthisyearvsonlyUSD1.7bnintolocaldebt.Furthermore,thereisalreadycrowdedpositioningatthel

6、ong-endofmostEMlocalbondcurvesandincreasingprospectsofasteeperlocalyieldcurve.AnincreaseinallocationtoshortdurationbondswithinEMisthereforelikely,inourview.WhatwelikeAmongthehighyielders,wefavourRussia(Long5yrOFZs),Mexico(Long3yrMBonos)andIndonesia(Long10yrIndoGBs).Volati

7、lity-adjustedcarryisstillquitesizeableinthesemarketsandrespectivemonetarypoliciesarestillrestrictivegivenabenigninflationoutlook.Localbondyieldsarethereforelikelytocontinuetoedgelowerduetotheprospectsofadeeperpolicyeasingcycle.Wealsorecommendaddingalong4yrIndiaGsecpositio

8、nandlong2yrPhilippinesgovernmentbonds.TheReserveBankofIndiaissettoembarkonanotherpolicyratecutin