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1、1CHAPTER1INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONEveryasset,financialaswellasreal,hasavalue.Thekeytosuccessfullyinvestinginandmanagingtheseassetsliesinunderstandingnotonlywhatthevalueisbutalsothesourcesofthevalue.Anyassetcanbevalued,butsomeassetsareeasiertovaluethanothersandt
2、hedetailsofvaluationwillvaryfromcasetocase.Thus,thevaluationofashareofarealestatepropertywillrequiredifferentinformationandfollowadifferentformatthanthevaluationofapubliclytradedstock.Whatissurprising,however,isnotthedifferencesinvaluationtechniquesacrossasse
3、ts,butthedegreeofsimilarityinbasicprinciples.Thereisundeniablyuncertaintyassociatedwithvaluation.Oftenthatuncertaintycomesfromtheassetbeingvalued,thoughthevaluationmodelmayaddtothatuncertainty.Thischapterlaysoutaphilosophicalbasisforvaluation,togetherwithadis
4、cussionofhowvaluationisorcanbeusedinavarietyofframeworks,fromportfoliomanagementtocorporatefinance.AphilosophicalbasisforvaluationItwasOscarWildewhodescribedacynicasonewho“knowsthepriceofeverything,butthevalueofnothing”.Hecouldverywellhavebeendescribingsomeeq
5、uityresearchanalystsandmanyinvestors,asurprisingnumberofwhomsubscribetothe'biggerfool'theoryofinvesting,whicharguesthatthevalueofanassetisirrelevantaslongasthereisa'biggerfool'willingtobuytheassetfromthem.Whilethismayprovideabasisforsomeprofits,itisadangerous
6、gametoplay,sincethereisnoguaranteethatsuchaninvestorwillstillbearoundwhenthetimetosellcomes.Apostulateofsoundinvestingisthataninvestordoesnotpaymoreforanassetthanitsworth.Thisstatementmayseemlogicalandobvious,butitisforgottenandrediscoveredatsometimeineveryge
7、nerationandineverymarket.Therearethosewhoaredisingenuousenoughtoarguethatvalueisintheeyesofthebeholder,andthatanypricecanbejustifiedifthereareotherinvestorswillingtopaythatprice.Thatispatentlyabsurd.Perceptionsmaybeallthatmatterwhentheassetisapaintingorasculp
8、ture,butinvestorsdonot(andshouldnot)buymostassetsforaestheticoremotionalreasons;2financialassetsareacquiredforthecashflowsexpectedonthem.Consequently,perceptionsofvaluehavetobebackedupbyr
