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1、Vol.50:247–256,2011CLIMATERESEARCHPublishedDecember22doi:10.3354/cr01060ClimResContributiontoCRSpecial28‘ChangesinclimaticextremesovermainlandChina’OPENPENACCESSCCESSRiskassessmentofagriculturaldroughtusingtheCERES-Wheatmodel:acasestudyofHenanPlain,ChinaHaiyanZhao1,GeGao2,*,XiaodongYan3,
2、4,QiangZhang5,MeitingHou6,YeyuZhu7,ZhanTian81ShanxiClimateCenter,80PingyangStreet,030006Taiyuan,PRChina2NationalClimateCenter,ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,46ZhongguancunSouthStreet,100081Beijing,PRChina3KeyLaboratoryofRegionalClimate-EnvironmentResearchforTemperateEastAsia,Institute
3、ofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,40Huayanli,100029Beijing,PRChina4BeijingNormalUniversity,19XinjiekouwaiStreet,100875Beijing,PRChina5ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,46ZhongguancunSouthStreet,100081Beijing,PRChina,6ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationTrainingCentre,46Zhongguan
4、cunSouthStreet,100081Beijing,PRChina7HenanClimateCenter,110JinshuiRoad,450003Zhengzhou,PRChina8ShanghaiClimateCenter,166PuxiRoad,200030Shanghai,PRChinaABSTRACT:Droughtscausedbyalackofprecipitationareoneofthemajorfactorslimitingagri-culturalcropproduction.Itisthusimportanttoassesstherisko
5、fsuchdroughtsinordertoreducetheireffectonagriculture.Inthepresentstudy,thedroughtriskforcropproductionwasassessedthroughanintegratedapproachthatanalyzedtherelationshipbetweencropyieldanddroughtontheHenanPlain,China.WeusedthecalibratedCERES-Wheatmodeltosimulate2levelsofwheatyield,theyield
6、potentialandthewater-limitedyieldpotential,at66weatherstations.Theyieldgapbetweentheyieldpotentialandthewater-limitedyieldpotentialwasusedasanindicatoroftheeffectsofaprecipitationdeficitoncropproductionunderrain-fedconditions.Astronglinearrelationshipbetweentheyieldgapandtheamountofpreci
7、pitationinthegrowingseasonwasobservedforeachstationduringtheperiod1962−2009.AuniformcriterionfordroughtseveritythresholdsfortheentireHenanPlainwasconstructedbasedontheyieldgap.Foreachstation,thegrowing-seasonprecipitationthresholdsassociatedwithdifferentdroughtseveritiesw
