资源描述：
《Climate change sensitivity assessment on upper Mississippi River Basin streamflows using SWAT》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、JOURNALOFTHEAMERICANWATERRESOURCESASSOCIATIONAUGUSTAMERICANWATERRESOURCESASSOCIATION2006CLIMATECHANGESENSITIVITYASSESSMENTONUPPERMISSISSIPPIRIVERBASINSTREAMFLOWSUSINGSWAT1ManojJha,JeffreyG.Arnold,PhilipW.Gassman,FilippoGiorgi,andRoyR.Gu2ABSTRACT:TheSoilandWaterAssessmentTool(SWAT)Jha,Manoj,
2、JeffreyG.Arnold,PhilipW.Gassman,FilippoGior-modelwasusedtoassesstheeffectsofpotentialfutureclimategi,andRoyR.Gu,2006.ClimateChangeSensitivityAssess-changeonthehydrologyoftheUpperMississippiRiverBasinmentonUpperMississippiRiverBasinStreamflowsUsing(UMRB).CalibrationandvalidationofSWATwereper
3、formedSWAT.JournaloftheAmericanWaterResourcesAssociationusingmonthlystreamflowsfor1968-1987and1988-1997,(JAWRA)42(4):997-1016.respectively.TheR2andNash-Sutcliffesimulationefficiencyvaluescomputedforthemonthlycomparisonswere0.74and0.69forthecalibrationperiodand0.82and0.81forthevalida-tionper
4、iod.Theeffectsofnine30-year(1968to1997)sensitiv-INTRODUCTIONityrunsandsixclimatechangescenarioswerethenanalyzed,relativetoascenariobaseline.AdoublingofatmosphericCO2Manycoupledatmosphericoceangeneralcircula-to660ppmv(whileholdingotherclimatevariablesconstant)tionmodel(AOGCM)experimentshaveb
5、eenper-resultedina36percentincreaseinaverageannualstreamflowformedinthepasttwodecadestoinvestigatethewhileaverageannualflowchangesof-49,-26,28,and58per-effectsofincreasinggreenhousegasconcentrations.centwerepredictedforprecipitationchangescenariosof-20,Thesestudiesindicatethatariseinglobalm
6、eantem--10,10,and20percent,respectively.Meanannualstreamflowperatureofbetween1.4ºCand5.8ºCwouldbeexpect-changesof51,10,2,-6,38,and27percentwerepredictedbyedfollowingadoublingofcarbondioxide(CO2)SWATinresponsetoclimatechangeprojectionsgeneratedconcentrations(Houghtonetal.,2001).Changesinfrom
7、theCISRO-RegCM2,CCC,CCSR,CISRO-Mk2,GFDL,andprecipitationaremorespeculativethantemperatureHadCM3generalcirculationmodelscenarios.Highseasonalprojections,especiallyforsmallerregions.Althoughvariabilitywasalsopredictedwithinindividualclimatechangetheregiona
