Artificial Neural Networks Improve the Accuracy of Cancer Survival Prediction

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1、857ArtificialNeuralNetworksImprovetheAccuracyofCancerSurvivalPredictionHarryB.Burke,M.D.,Ph.D.1BACKGROUND.TheTNMstagingsystemoriginatedasaresponsetotheneedforPhilipH.Goodman,M.D.,M.S.2anaccurate,consistent,universalcanceroutcomepredictionsystem.SincetheDavidB.Rosen,Ph.

2、D.1TNMstagingsystemwasintroducedinthe1950s,newprognosticfactorshaveDonaldE.Henson,M.D.3beenidenti®edandnewmethodsforintegratingprognosticfactorshavebeen4developed.ThisstudycomparesthepredictionaccuracyoftheTNMstagingsystemJohnN.Weinstein,M.D.,Ph.D.FrankE.Harrell,Jr.,5

3、withthatofarti®cialneuralnetworkstatisticalmodels.Ph.D.6METHODS.For5-yearsurvivalofpatientswithbreastorcolorectalcarcinoma,JeffreyR.Marks,Ph.D.7theauthorscomparedtheTNMstagingsystem'spredictiveaccuracywiththatofDavidP.Winchester,M.D.8arti®cialneuralnetworks(ANN).Thear

4、eaunderthereceiveroperatingcharacteris-DavidG.Bostwick,M.D.ticcurve,asappliedtoanindependentvalidationdataset,wasthemeasureofaccuracy.1BioinformaticsandHealthServicesResearch,RESULTS.FortheAmericanCollegeofSurgeons'PatientCareEvaluation(PCE)DepartmentofMedicine,NewYor

5、kMedicalCol-dataset,usingonlytheTNMvariables(tumorsize,numberofpositiveregionallege,Valhalla,NewYork.lymphnodes,anddistantmetastasis),thearti®cialneuralnetwork'spredictions2DepartmentofMedicine,UniversityofNevadaofthe5-yearsurvivalofpatientswithbreastcarcinomaweresign

6、i®cantlymoreSchoolofMedicine,Reno,Nevada.accuratethanthoseoftheTNMstagingsystem(TNM,0.720;ANN,0.770;P3DivisionofCancerPreventionandControl,Na-0.001).FortheNationalCancerInstitute'sSurveillance,Epidemiology,andEndtionalCancerInstitute,Bethesda,Maryland.Resultsbreastcar

7、cinomadataset,usingonlytheTNMvariables,thearti®cial4neuralnetwork'spredictionsof10-yearsurvivalweresigni®cantlymoreaccurateDivisionofCancerTreatment,NationalCancerInstitute,Bethesda,Maryland.thanthoseoftheTNMstagingsystem(TNM,0.692;ANN,0.730;P0.01).ForthePCEcolorectal

8、dataset,usingonlytheTNMvariables,thearti®cialneural5DepartmentofHealthEvaluationSciences,network'spredictionsofthe5-yearsurv