IMF 2006 Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessments

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1、INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDMethodologyforCGERExchangeRateAssessmentsPreparedbytheResearchDepartment1(InconsultationwiththePolicyDevelopmentandReviewDepartment)ApprovedbyRaghuramG.RajanNovember8,2006ContentsPageI.Overview.......................................................

2、.........................................................................3II.MacroeconomicBalanceApproach......................................................................................5A.TheoreticalBackgroundandVariableDefinitions....................................

3、...............5B.EstimationResults.....................................................................................................7C.CurrentAccountNorms..........................................................................................11D.ExchangeRateAssessmen

4、ts...................................................................................12III.EquilibriumRealExchangeRateApproach......................................................................13A.TheoreticalBackgroundandVariableDefinitions..............................

5、...................14B.EstimationResults...................................................................................................15C.EquilibriumRealExchangeRates...........................................................................17D.ExchangeRateAssessments

6、...................................................................................17IV.ExternalSustainability.......................................................................................................18A.TheoreticalBackground...................................

7、.......................................................19B.ChoosingaBenchmarkLevelforNetForeignAssets............................................21C.AnApplicationUsing2004NFAastheBenchmarkLevel....................................21D.CurrentAccount,NetForeignAssets,andExcha

8、nge-RateAdjustment................23V.Conclusion.........................................