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1、November29,2012ChinaA-shareStrategy2013Outlook:Recoveringmildly,withhopespinnedonreformPortfolioStrategyResearchSanguinemacrorecovery,limitedinflationaryconcernsJasonSunOureconomicsteam’s8.1%GDPgrowthforecastin2013isdrivenpartly+86(10)6627-3187jason.sun@ghsl.cnbydomesticdemandrecovery(im
2、provinginventory)andpartlybybetterBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitednetexports(GSglobalGDPforecastof3.3%in2013,vs.3.0%in2012),andrepresentsagraduallystrengtheningquarterlypathfrom7.4%in3Q12.HelenZhuMeanwhile,theyexpectCPIshouldbemanageableatbelow3%in1H13+852-2978-0048helen.zhu@gs.coma
3、ndslightlyabove3%in2H13.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.Positivestance:earnings/valuationexpansiontodrivereturnsTimothyMoe,CFAOurend-2013CSI300targetof2,750represents25%potentialupside+852-2978-1328timothy.moe@gs.comagainstthebackdropofamacrorecovery.Weforecast9%top-downGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.e
4、arningsgrowth(vs.Windconsensusat13%),andassumeaslightpro-cyclicalre-ratingfromthecurrent9.2X2013EP/Eto10.6X(vs.2004-2012ChristopherEoyangavg.15X).WefeelthecyclicalityofGDPandthusearningsgrowthmaybe+65-6889-1199christopher.eoyang@gs.comabouttodiminish,andthatreformwillbeessentialtosupport
5、anyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Ptesustainedandmeaningfulvaluationre-ratinginthelongerrun.Selectivecyclicalbiasin1H13;reformfocusin2H13BenBei+852-2978-1220ben.bei@gs.comWearemorepositivein1H13onpotentialforcyclicalupsidesurpriseiftheGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.economystabilizes/reboundsamidlimited
6、inflationarypressureandextremelylowinvestorexpectations.Ourfocusturnstopotentialreformbeneficiariesin2H13asthe3rdPlenarySessionapproaches.WesuggestChenjieLiuoverweightingProperty,ConstructionMaterials,Securities,Insurance,+86(10)6627-3324chenjie.liu@ghsl.cnBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyL
7、imitedMedia,Food&BeveragesandunderweightingSteel,Coal,andChemicals.Wealsoidentifyourtoptenstockpickswithahalf-cyclical/half-reformbias.WeexpecttepidrecoveryforCSI300alongwithGDPrecoveryin2013E(%)3,400CSI300IndexPathvs.GDPgrowth(yoy,RHS)10.03,2009.5GDPgrowth(yoy)3,0002,750
