201212Moodys：US Fin Sector and Fiscal Cliff

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1、DECEMBER17,2012USFinancialInstitutionsandtheFiscalCliffSPECIALCOMMENTTableofContents:IntroductionINTRODUCTION1USBANKS’IMPROVEDCAPITALLEVELSUSfiscalpolicyposessignificantriskstoeconomicactivity.ThearticlesthatfollowprovideourWOULDBUFFERAGAINSTassessmentofhowvariousfiscaloutcomesaf

2、fectthecreditqualityofUSfinancialinstitutions:RECESSIONARYEFFECTS2FANNIEANDFREDDIEWOULDBECOME»BanksLOSS-MAKINGAGAIN4HEALTHINSURERSWOULDFACE»FannieMaeandFreddieMacINCREASEDCOSTSANDLOWERENROLLMENT5»HealthinsurersUSLIFEINSURERSWOULDBEEXPOSEDTOPROLONGEDLOWRATES6»LifeinsurersEFFECTSON

3、PROPERTYANDCASUALTYINSURERSWOULDBELIMITED8»PropertyandcasualtyinsurersUSASSETMANAGERSWOULDLOSEASSETSUNDERMANAGEMENT10»AssetmanagersCurrentUSlawmandatessubstantialtaxincreasesandgovernmentspendingcutstotalingaround4.5%ofGDPbeginninginJanuary–the“fiscalcliff.”Thesuddenfiscaldiscont

4、inuitywascausedbyaccident.TheUSCongresshadpreviouslyextendedtaxratedecreasespassedin2001and2003thatnowexpireon31December2012.Separately,inthecontextofthedebtceilingdebateinAugust2011,Congressmandatedthatacross-the-boardspendingcutsbeginon1January2013ifthepoliticalpartiescouldnota

5、greeonamoreelegantsolutiontoreduceUSdebt.Noagreementhasyetbeenreached,sotheautomaticspendingcutsareonscheduletotakeeffect.NeithertheUSDemocraticnorRepublicanpoliticalpartieswantthefiscalmeasurestotakeplacenextmonth.However,theyhaveopposingviewsonhowUSdebtshouldbereduced,withRepub

6、licansmoreinfavorofreininginspendingandDemocratsmoreinfavorofincreasingtaxrevenue.Unlessaddressed,thescaleoffiscalpolicytighteningwouldresultintheUSfallingbackintorecessionearlyin2013.AnalysisbytheCongressionalBudgetOfficesuggeststhatifallofthescheduledchangestotaxandspendingpoli

7、ciestakeeffectinJanuary2013,USrealGDPwillfallby0.5%overthefourquartersto2013fourthquarter,andtheunemploymentratewillriseto9.1%fromthemostrecentrateof7.7%inNovember.Ifbysometimein2013theUSdoesnotadoptpoliciesthatleadtodebtstabilizationandultimatelyreduction,thecreditqualityoftheUS

8、willdeteriorate.AweakeningoftheUSgovernm