26The Real Exchange Rate and Economy Growth

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1、11472-07_Rodrik_rev2.qxd3/6/091:20PMPage365DANIRODRIKHarvardUniversityTheRealExchangeRateandEconomicGrowthABSTRACTIshowthatundervaluationofthecurrency(ahighrealexchangerate)stimulateseconomicgrowth.Thisistrueparticularlyfordevel-opingcountries.Thisfindingisrobusttousin

2、gdifferentmeasuresoftherealexchangerateanddifferentestimationtechniques.Ialsoprovidesomeevi-dencethattheoperativechannelisthesizeofthetradablesector(especiallyindustry).Theseresultssuggestthattradablessufferdisproportionatelyfromthegovernmentormarketfailuresthatkeeppo

3、orcountriesfromconvergingtowardcountrieswithhigherincomes.Ipresenttwocategoriesofexplanationsforwhythismaybeso,thefirstfocusingoninstitutionalweaknesses,andthesecondonproduct-marketfailures.Aformalmodelelucidatesthelinkagesbetweentherealexchangerateandtherateofeconomic

4、growth.Economistshavelongknownthatpoorlymanagedexchangeratescanbedisastrousforeconomicgrowth.Avoidingsignificantovervaluationofthecurrencyisoneofthemostrobustimperativesthatcanbegleanedfromthediverseexperiencewitheconomicgrowtharoundtheworld,andonethatappearstobestrong

5、lysupportedbycross-countrystatisticalevi-dence.1Theresultsreportedinthewell-knownpapersbyDavidDollarandbyJeffreySachsandAndrewWarnerontherelationshipbetweenoutwardorientationandeconomicgrowtharelargelybasedonindicesthatcapturethedegreeofovervaluation.2Muchoftheliterat

6、urethatderivespolicyrec-ommendationsfromcross-nationalregressionsisnowindisrepute,3butit1.RazinandCollins(1997);Johnson,Ostry,andSubramanian(2007);RajanandSub-ramanian(2006).2.Dollar(1992);SachsandWarner(1995);RodriguezandRodrik(2001).3.Easterly(2005);Rodrik(2005).365

7、11472-07_Rodrik_rev2.qxd3/6/091:20PMPage366366BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,Fall2008isprobablyfairtosaythattheadmonishmentagainstovervaluationremainsasstrongasever.Inhispessimisticsurveyofthecross-nationalgrowthliterature,4WilliamEasterlyagreesthatlargeovervaluati

8、onshaveanadverseeffectongrowth(althoughheremainsskepticalthatmoderatemovementshavedeterminateeffects).Whyovervaluationissoco