aer.100.2.20 Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring Real Activity Inflation and Interactions

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1、AmericanEconomicReview:Papers&Proceedings100(May2010):20–24http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.2.20Real-TimeMacroeconomicMonitoring:RealActivity,Inflation,andInteractionsByS.Borag˘anAruobaandFrancisX.Diebold*Realeconomicagents,makingrealdecisionsme

2、asurementisnowvoluminous,withleadinginrealtime,needaccurateandtimelyesti-referenceworksfeaturingitprominently(e.g.,matesofthestateofmacroeconomicactivity.DeanCroushore2006),andrecentlyestab-Everyday,literallymillionsofeconomicagentslishedannualconferenceschroniclinga

3、nd(businesspeople,retailandinstitutionalinves-promotingnewdevelopments.2EvenGoogletors,financialinstitutions,economists,house-isnowinthegame,asindustryandacadem-holds,…)explicitlyorimplicitlyattempttoformicsworktogethertoexpandthefrontier;seeandupdateviewsonmacroecon

4、omicactivityHyunyoungChoiandHalVarian(2009).asnewinformationarrives.Significantparts,Improvedreal-timemacroeconomicmea-forexample,ofthefirstfewpagesofanyday’ssurementisofinterestnotonlytoprivateagents,WallStreetJournalorFinancialTimesaretypi-butalsotopolicymakers.Bot

5、hgroupsseektocallydevotedtorecentlyreleasedorsoon-to-be-usebetterinformationtomakebetterdecisions.releaseddataandtheirlikelyimplicationsforHencecentralbanksandnongovernmentalbusinessconditions.organizations(NGOs)worldwidehaverecentlyTohelpmeetthisdemand,wehaveearlier

6、devotedsignificantresourcestoreal-timemac-suppliedandillustratedaframeworkforhighroeconomicmonitoring,asforexamplewithfrequencymeasurementofmacroeconomictheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia’sactivityinasystematic,replicable,andstatis-Real-TimeDataResearchCenter,theBan

7、kofticallyoptimalmanner(S.Borag˘anAruoba,ItalyandtheCenterforEconomicandPolicyFrancisX.Diebold,andChiaraScotti2009).1Research’sEuroCOINproject,andtheBankofWearehardlyaloneinappreciatingthedesir-Spain’sEuro-STINGproject.abilityandbenefitsofhighfrequencymea-Similarly,l

8、eadingpolicy-orientedacademicsurement,however,asinterestintheareahasmacroeconomistsarefocusingsquarelyonescalatedrapidly.Academicre