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1、TheMonetaryPolicyTransmissionMechanisminIndustrialCountriesBennettT.McCallumCarnegieMellonUniversityandNationalBureauofEconomicResearchMay16,2004Thispaperwaspreparedforandpresentedatthehigh-levelseminar“China’sMonetaryPolicyTransmissionMechanism,”hostedbythePeop
2、le’sBankofChina,Beijing,onApril12-13,2004.IamindebtedtoEdwardNelsonforhelpfuldiscussions.1.IntroductionThemainobjectiveofthispaperistodevelopasimplifiedbutsubstantiveanalysisofthemonetarypolicytransmissionmechanismthatiscurrentlyrelevantformostindustrializedecon
3、omies.ThediscussionwillaccordinglypresumethatinstitutionsandpolicyproceduresareofthegeneraltypeutilizedintheUnitedStates,Japan,andtheEuroArea.Someattentionwillbepaid,however,tosmallerindustrialeconomiesforwhichforeigntradeislargerinrelationtodomesticproduction.A
4、sindicated,thepaper’sobjectivesarelargelysubstantive,involvinganattempttodeterminewhichaspectsofthetransmissionmechanismformonetarypolicyaremostcrucial.Thetopicisone,however,thatrequiresasignificantamountofmethodologicaldiscussion.Issuesrelatingtothetypeofmodels
5、andanalysistobeemployedareof1fundamentalimportance,andwillthereforebeconsideredexplicitlyinwhatfollows.Indeed,itmaybeusefultobeginwithastatementofwhatismeantbytheterm“monetarytransmissionmechanism.”Thatthistermevokesdifferentresponsesfromdifferentscholarsiswelli
6、llustratedbyasymposiumon“TheMonetaryTransmissionMechanism”featuredintheFall1995issueoftheJournalofEconomicPerspectives.Inthepapersofthatsymposium,BernankeandGertler(1995)focusonthecreditchannel;Meltzer(1995)promotesmonetaristemphasisontheimportanceofrecognizingm
7、ultipleassets;Taylor(1995)outlinesaparticulareconometricframeworkforstudyingthetransmissionmechanism;ObstfeldandRogoff(1995)discussforeignexchange-ratepolicyandfinancialcrises;andMishkin(1995)providesabriefoverview.Moregenerally,manywritersonthe1Foradditionaldis
8、cussionofmethodologicalissues,seeMcCallum(2001a),fromwhichportionsofthispaperhavebeenadapted.12subjectrestricttheirattentiontotheeffectsofmonetarypolicyshocks,whileso
