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US Internet Industry Primer 2013

'US Internet Industry Primer 2013'
c58da9b710df662c BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 83 to 84. Link to Definitions on page 82. 11240729 Internet/e-Commerce US Internet Industry Primer ? Internet industry primer Our 2013 Internet industry primer provides a detailed overview of the Internet industry, including: 1) global eCommerce; Online Advertising and Online travel forecasts; 2) top investment themes that will shape the industry; 3) a sector valuation overview; and 4) risks to our industry estimates. Moving along penetration curves, double-digit growth in ‘13 New platforms (mobile, IP to TV), business models (social, local), and a possible European recovery should continue to drive strong low-teens Online industry growth in 2013, outpacing most other technology and media sectors. In the US, we expect Online advertising to grow 13% y/y (vs. 16% in 2012), Online retail to grow 14% (vs. 16%), and Online travel bookings to be up 7% y/y (vs. 11%). Key themes shaping Internet sector returns in 2013 The top themes for 2013 that will shape the sector include Mobile usage explosion, HW competition, Google disintermediation, Offline retailers striking back, and the digital content land grab. We also see potential for mobile focused and/or cash returning companies to outperform, and some IPOs to see a bounce after a rough 2012. The US budget will likely remain top of mind in early 2013 and we think sentiment should improve during the year as our European economist expects Europe to exit 2013 in better shape that it enters. Time to pay back investors, cash returners outperformed Companies with that bought back stock or paid dividends were rewarded in 2012 as share price data shows these companies significantly outperformed both the S Using EBITDA instead of EPS for LinkedIn and IAC/InterActive Corp Chart 2: Small-Cap Stock Price Performance in 2012 vs. % Change In 2013 Street EPS -26% -5%-4% 87% 25% 83% -42% -8% 31% 7% -75% 13% 9% -24% 0% -22% -35% 21% -7% 0% -18% -96% -6% -25% 109% -64% -22% -19% -30% 0% AC TVANGIAWAYDRIVEHTHOPENOSTKRATEPRLOCSFLYVPRTZNGASP 500Avg 2012 % Change in Stock PriceY TD % Change in Street 2013 E PS Source: Bloomberg; Using EBITDA instead of EPS for Active Network, QuinStreet, ReachLocal, and Bankrate Internet/e-Commerce 23 January 2013 4 Sector Valuations Have Come Back The average forward P/E for Large-Cap Internet sector stocks has increased from around 12x at the depth of the 2008 recession to 22x currently while EV/EBITDA has increased from around 5x to 9x currently (using Bloomberg consensus estimates). With average valuations in a steady range over the last 3 years, absent an economic shock or unexpected pickup, we belie
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