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1、WORLDONTHEEDGEHowtoPreventEnvironmentalandEconomicCollapseLesterR.BrownW•W•NORTON&COMPANYNEWYORKLONDONCopyright©2011byEarthPolicyInstituteAllrightsreservedTheEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTEtrademarkisregisteredintheU.S.PatentandTrademarkOffice.Theviewsexpressedarethoseo
2、ftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheEarthPolicyInstitute;ofitsdirectors,officers,orstaff;orofanyfunders.ISBN:978-0-393-34096-9W.W.Norton&Company,Inc.,500FifthAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10110www.wwnorton.comW.W.Norton&Company,Ltd.,CastleHouse,75/76WellsStr
3、eet,LondonWiT3QTContentsPrefacel.OntheEdgeI.ADETERIORATINGFOUNDATION2.FallingWaterTablesandShrinkingHarvests3.ErodingSoilsandExpandingDeserts4.RisingTemperatures,MeltingFoodSecurityII.THECONSEQUENCES5.TheEmergingPoliticsofFoodScarcity6.EnvironmentalRefugees:T
4、heRisingTide7.MountingStresses,FailingStatesIII.THERESPONSE:PLANB8.BuildinganEnergy-EfficientGlobalEconomy9.HarnessingWind,Solar,andGeothermalEnergy1o.RestoringtheEconomy'sNaturalSupportSystems11.EradicatingPoverty,StabilizingPopulation,andRescuing12.FailingS
5、tates13.FeedingEightBillionIV.WATCHINGTHECLOCK14.SavingCivilizationAdditionalResourcesAcknowledgmentsAbouttheAuthorPrefaceWhenImeetoldfriendsandtheyask,"Howareyou?"Ioftenreply,"I'mfine;it'stheworldIamworriedabout.""Aren'tweall"isthecommonresponse.Mostpeopleha
6、vearathervaguesenseofconcernaboutthefuture,butsomeworryaboutspecificthreatssuchasclimatechangeorpopulationgrowth.Somearebeyondquestioningwhethercivilizationwilldeclineifwecontinuewithbusinessasusual,andinsteadtheyareaskingwhenthiswilloccur.Inearly2009,JohnBed
7、dington,chiefscienceadvisortotheU.K.government,saidtheworldwasfacinga"perfectstorm"offoodshortages,waterscarcity,andcostlyoilby2030.Thesedevelopments,plusacceleratingclimatechangeandmassmigrationacrossnationalborders,wouldleadtomajorupheavals.Aweeklater,Jonat
8、honPorritt,formerchairoftheU.K.SustainableDevelopmentCommission,wroteintheGuardianthatheagreedwithBeddington'sanalysisbutthatthetimingwasoff.Hethinksthecrisis"willhitmuchcloserto2020than2
