2016年美赛F题中国人民大学O奖论文.pdf

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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyForofficeuseonly43181T1________________F1________________T2________________F2________________ProblemChosenT3________________F3________________T4________________FF4________________2016ICMSummarySheetInrecentmonths,Europe'smigrantcrisishasbeguntounfold

2、atanunprecedentedpace,whichbecomesamatterofgreatconcern.Tohelpbetterunderstandandthuseffectivelydealwiththeproblem,weestablishedaDualGoalNetworkPlanningModel.Firstly,wequantifythefactorsthatinfluencerefugee’smigrationroutes.Accordingtotherefugeeamountandgeographicaldistributionfeatu

3、resoftheiroriginalcountries,wethenselectfivetypicalrefugeeexportingplacesandtenmajorrefugeereceivingcountries.TheseroutesareabstractedtoaNetworkingModelforanalysis.Foreachroute,weputweightedvaluesonitsmodelparameters,establishtheoptimalobjectivefunction,findtheoptimalsolutionandacqu

4、iretheoptimalpatternofrefugeemigration.Toimprovetheaccuracyandapplicability,wethenreviseandfurtheroptimizeourmodelintwoways.Firstly,trafficconditionsoneachroutearetakenintoaccountandananalysisofdynamicchangesonreceivingcountries'capacityisconducted.Also,uncertainfactorswereeliminate

5、dwhilethemostsensitiveonesareretainedtoenlargethemodel'sscopeofapplication.Intheend,wemakeasetofpolicyproposalsconcerningrefugeemigration.Firstly,wechoosethedistributionofrefugees,transportationavailabilityandcapacityofrefugee-receivingcountriesasthreegeneralfactorswhichcaninfluence

6、thesecurityandefficientmovementofrefugees.Eachfactorisdeterminedbyseveralmetricswhichcanbeeasilydetected.Firstlyweusethequantityofrefugeesandmajororiginstodescribethescopeanddistributionofrefugees.Secondlywechoosethreeparameterstoevaluatethetransportationavailabilityofeachroute:thed

7、eathrateofeachmigrationroutes,thedistancebetweentwocountries(measuredbythedistanceofaccessibleroutesbetweentwocountries’capitals),andtheaveragetimerefugeesdrivethedistance(adjustedwithdifferenttimespendwhencrossingdifferentcountries’borders).Wesetupariskpreferencemodeltoevaluatetheo

8、bjectivefunctionoft