C4SS-Resilient-Communities-and-Local-Economies国家资本主义之后地社会: 弹性社区与地方经济.pdf

C4SS-Resilient-Communities-and-Local-Economies国家资本主义之后地社会: 弹性社区与地方经济.pdf

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1、SOCIETYAFTERSTATECAPITALISM:ResilientCommunitiesandLocalEconomiesByKevinA.CarsonCenterforaStatelessSocietyPaperNo.6(October-November2009)1Wealreadysaw,inC4SSPaperNo.5,theeconomyofnetworkedmicromanufacturingthat'slikely2toemergefromthedeclineofthestatecapitalists

2、ystem.AndaswesawinC4SSPaperNo.4,thereisacyclicaltendencyofindustrialproductiontoshiftfromthemass-productioncoretothecraftperipheryineconomicdownturns.We'veseen,furthermore,along-termstructuralshiftinthesamedirectionduringthestagnationofthepastthirtyyears.Thereis

3、asimilarhistoricconnectionbetweensevereeconomicdownturns,withsignificantperiodsofunemployment,andtheformationofbarternetworksandresilientcommunities.Ifthecomparisontomanufacturingholds,giventhecumulativeeffectofallofstatecapitalism'scrisesofsustainabilitywhichwe

4、examinedinPaperNo.4,wecanexpecttoseealong-termstructuralshifttowardresilientcommunitiesandrelocalizedexchange.JohnRobbsuggeststhat,giventheseverityofthepresent“GreatRecession,”itmayusherinaphasetransitioninwhichthenewsocietycrystallizesaroundresilientcommunities

5、asabasicbuildingblock;resilientcommunitieswillplaythesameroleinresolvingthecurrent“TimeofTroubles”thattheKeynesianstatedidinresolvingthelastone.Historically,economicrecessionsthatlastlongerthanayearhavedurations/severitiesthatcanbeplottedaspowerlawdistributions.

6、...Giventhatwearealreadyoverayearintothisrecession,itimpliesthatwearereallyintoblackswanterritory(unknownandextremeoutcomes)inregardstoourglobaleconomy'scurrentdownturnandthatnoestimatesofrecoverytimesorultimateseveritybasedonhistoricaldataofpastrecessionsapplya

7、nymore.Thisalsomeansthatthesystemhasexceededitsabilitytoadaptusingstandardmethods(thatshouldn'tbenewstoanyone).Itmaybeevenmoreinterestingthanthat.Theapparentnon-linearityandturbulenceofthecurrentsituationsuggestswemaybeataphasetransition(akintotheshiftinthenatur

8、alworldfromicetowater)....Asaresult,anewcontrolregimemayemerge.Togetaglimpseofwhatisinstoreforus,weneedtolookatthesourcesofemergingorder(newlyconfigureddissipativeand

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