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1、WP/15/151China’sLaborMarketinthe“NewNormal”byW.RaphaelLam,XiaoguangLiu,andAlfredSchipkeIMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepr
2、esenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.©2015InternationalMonetaryFundWP/15/151IMFWorkingPaperAsiaandPacificDepartmentChina’sLaborMarketinthe“NewNormal”1PreparedbyW.RaphaelLam,XiaoguangLiu,andAlfredSchipkeAuthorizedfordistributionbyAlfredSchipkeJuly2015IMFWor
3、kingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.AbstractAsChinaimplementsreformsunder
4、the“newnormal,”maintainingstabilityinthelabormarketisapriority.Thecountry’sdemographyandlabordynamicsarechanging,afterbenefittinginpastdecadesfromamplecheaplabor.Sofar,thelabormarketappearstoberesilient,evenasgrowthslows,driveninpartbyexpansionoftheservicessector.Migrantflow
5、sandpossiblelaborhoardinginovercapacitysectorsmayalsohelpexplainthis.Yet,whilethelattertwofactorshelpserveasshockabsorbers—contributingtolabormarketstabilityintheshortterm—iftheypersist,theymaydelaytheneededadjustmentprocess,contributingtoaninefficientallocationofresourcesan
6、dcurtailingproductivitygains.Thispaperquantifiestowhatextentstructuraltrendsandthereformpaceaffectemploymentgrowthunderthenewnormal.Delaysinreformimplementationwouldweakengrowthprospectsinthemediumterm,runningtheriskthatjobcreationwillfallbelowpolicytargets,leadingtolabormar
7、ketpressuresinthefuture.Incontrast,successfultransitionmightrequirefasterreforms,includingintheovercapacityandstate-ownedenterprisesectors,supportedbywelltargetedsocialsafetynets.JELClassificationNumbers:E1,E2,J1,J2,J3,J6Keywords:China,LaborMarkets,Unemployment,Migration,Mob
8、ilityAuthors’E-MailAddresses:wlam@imf.org;xliu3@imf.org;aschipke@imf.org1We
