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1、ExchangeRateDisequalibria:TheRoleofaDominantCurrencyintheAsianCrisisandaCaseforCurrencyBoardsOrdeanG.OlsonNovaSoutheasternUniversityApril25,199923ExchangeRateDisequalibria:TheRoleofaDominantCurrencyinTheAsianCrisisandaCaseforCurrencyBoardsAuthor:OrdeanOlsonAssistantProfessorNovaSoutheasternUnive

2、rsityAbstractThispaperwillprovideadiagnosisofthefinancialcrisisinAsiafocusingontheempiricalrecordintheperiodleadinguptothecrisis,andbuildingontheexistingtheories.ThemaingoalistoemphasizetheroleofthecurrenciesoftheUnitedStates,JapanandGermanyandvolatilityoftheexchangeratesofthesecurrenciesasaness

3、entialelementindeterminingthecauseoftheAsiancrisis.Thispaperalsoaddressesandattemptstoanswerthequestion,"Canadevelopingcountryachieveeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentifitlinksitscurrencytoastableanchor,suchastheU.S.dollar".Thelastpartofthepaperwillbedevotedtoexaminingtheroleofcurrencyboardsasapossibl

4、ealternativetothesystemsutilizedbytheAsianregimes.23TableofContents1.Introduction32.DomesticCreditCreationandCurrencyCrisis73.SpeculativeExpectations,MultipleEquilibria,andSelf-fulfillingCrises84.DevaluationandMonetaryStandards85.TheVolatilityofKeyExchangeRatesandAsianMonetaryCooperation116.Curr

5、encyBoardsasanAlternative12a.BackgroundonCurrencyBoards12b.ACaseofCurrencyBoards15c.TheHongKongCurrencyBoard;ASuccessfulFixedRateExchangeSystem167.Summary18References19Endnotes2223IntroductionTheEastAsianfinancialcrisishascreatedrenewedinterestinthecausesandconsequencesofaneventthathitsomeofthem

6、ostrapidlygrowingeconomiesintheworld,andhaspromptedoneofthelargestfinancialbailoutsinhistory.Itrivalsthe1982debtcrisisastoitsimpactontheinternationalfinancialsystem.MuchoftherecentemphasisinresearchhasbeendirectedtowardfindingthecausewithinAsia,suchascorruptandmismanagedbankingsystems,lackoftran

7、sparencyincorporategovernance,andtheshort-comingofstate-managedcapitalism.RadeletandSachs(1998)tookthisperspectiveinadditiontoarguingthattheactionsoftheIMFexacerbatedthecrisis.EarlierworkbySalantandHenderson(1979),Krugman(19