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1、2014届高考英语一轮复习话题阅读素材28 TheArtofSmartGuessing Severaldaysago,interviewingjobcandidates,Igrewtiredofasking"Whatexperiencedoyouhave?"Idecidedonaquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepestpoint,theMaria
2、naTrench.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poundcannonballovertheside.Howlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheocean? Beforereadingon,trytosolvethisyourself--payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.Didyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecause"therewasn'tenoughinformation?"Didyou
3、gettooboggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe"exactlyright"answer?Ordidyouzeroinonthetwomostimportantproblems--howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater?Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation. Whatdoesthishavetodowithb
4、usinessorcreativity?Agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Aproblemthatdoesn'tcontainalltheinformationdeededtosolveitiscalledaFermiproblem,namedafterNobelPrize-winningphysicistEnricoFermi. FermionceaskedisstudentshowmanypianotunerstherewereinC
5、hicago.Toanswerthequestion,herecommendedbreakingitdownintosmaller,moremanageablequestions.HowmanypeopleliveinChicago?Threemillionwouldbeareasonableestimate.Howmanypeopleperfamily?Assumeanaverageoffour.Howmanyfamiliesownpianos?Sayoneoutofthree.Thenthereareabout250,000pianosinChicago.Howoftenwoulde
6、achbetuned?Maybeonceeveryfiveyears.Thatmakes50,000tuningsayear.Howmanypianoscanonetunertuneinaday?Four?Andhowmanyinayear?Assuming250workingdays,onetunercanhandle1,000pianosayear.Sothere'sworkforapproximately50pianotunersinChicago--which,asitturnsout,isreasonablyclosetotheactualnumberintheYellowPa
7、ges. Whywasguessworksoaccurate?Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsible.Atanypoint,yourassumptionsmaybetoohighortoolow.Butbecauseofthelawofaverages,yourmistakeswillfrequentlybalanceout. Bytheway,theMarianaTrenchisaboutsix
