银行业：2020年盈利增速预计维持相对平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级.docx

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1、24June2020MainlandChinesebanks("mainlandbanks")listedinHongKongoutperformedtheHongKongHangSengindexsofarin2020.Asat23June2020,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongoutperformedtheHangSengindexby0.5ppts.IntermsoftheYTDweightedreturntrendofma

2、inlandbankslistedinHongKong,thehighestYTDweightedreturnsofarin2020was3.1%on3January2020.Asat23June2020,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongwas-11.1%.Exhibit1:TheHongKongHangSengIndexandH-ShareIndextrendofmainlandbanks5.0%0.0%Dec-19Jan-20M

3、ar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%HSIIndexIndexofmainlandlistedbanksSource:GuotaiJunanInternational.Note:indexofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongarecompositedbytheweightedaveragemarketcapitalizationofthemainlandbankslistedinHongKong,asat23

4、June2020.BankingSector银行行业TheGDPgrowthrateinthefirstquartershowedararenegativegrowthtrendandisexpectedtoreturntopositivegrowthinthesecondquarter.In1Q20,China'sGDPfell6.8%YoYatcomparableprices,whichwasmainlyimpactedbytheCOVID-19outbreak.TheCOVID-19outbre

5、akhasincreaseddownwardpressureonthedomesticandinternationaleconomies.However,asthedomesticCOVID-19outbreakisnowundercontrolinChina,thenegativeimpactontheChineseeconomyisexpectedtobemanageable.Underthebackgroundthatthegovernmenthasintensifiedtheimplement

6、ationofthepolicyofresumingworkandproduction,theeconomyisexpectedtoreturntopositivegrowthinthesecondquarter.TheIndustrialandserviceindustriesandinvestmentgrowtharegraduallyrecoveringfromtheimpactofCOVID-19,andconsumption,thoughstillsubdued,isimprovingove

7、rall.In1-5M20,industrialproductiondroppedby2.8%YoY.Fixedassetinvestmentdecreasedby6.3%YoYin1-5M20.NominalYoYgrowthofretailsalesofconsumergoodsinMaywas-2.8%.ThegrowthofexportsandimportsdroppedasaresultoftheCOVID-19outbreakofandSino-UStradefriction.In1-5M

8、19,exportsandimportsdecreasedby7.7%YoYand8.2%YoY,respectively.Exhibit2:YoYgrowthofChineseindustrialproductionExhibit3:YoYgrowthofChinesefixedassetinvestment(Accumulated)20.0%15.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0May-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Ju