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1、COREAmericasAgribusinessFromFarmtoConsumer–InitiatingADMandBGatOWWeareinitiatingcoverageonADMandBGwithbothstocksratedOverweight:INITIATINGCOVERAGEAmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch30June2020Globalgrainprocessors,inourview,arewellpositionedt
2、ocapturefuturegrowth,asdemandforagriculturalproductsincreasesonthebackofagrowingpopulation.ADMandBGbothsourcerawmaterialsfromthemostproductiveregions(NorthandSouthAmerica),whilehavinganextensivegloballogisticsnetwork,allowingbothcompaniestoconnectfarmerstoco
3、nsumers.Whiletheindustryisexposedtoseveralrisks,whichshouldnotbeunderestimated,webelievetheveryparticularinvestmentthesisofADMandBGcancreateshareholdervalue.ADM(OW,$52pricetarget)–Deliveringonitstransitionfromacommoditycompanytoavalue-addednutritioncompany:A
4、DM,inourview,hastakentherightstepsinthepast,reshufflingitsportfolioandaddingthevalue-addednutritionbusinesstoitsportfolio.Thesegmentnotonlyfitswellduetoverticalintegration,itshouldalsoallowADMtogrowsalesathigherrateswhileexpandingconsolidatedmargins,asthebus
5、inesshasanintrinsicallyhigherearningspower.Althoughshort-termrisksrelatedtotrade,COVID-19,andweather,amongothers,canhaveanimpactonresults,weseeinthemediumtermahigherlevelofprofitability,whichdrivesour$52pricetarget.BG(OW,$55pricetarget)–Stillintheearlystages
6、ofitstransitionstory:Withover200yearsofhistory,BGveryrecentlyembarkedonitstransformationjourney.Inearly2019,BGputanewandmotivatedmanagementteaminplacetoleadthetransition,andweexpectthecompanytofurtherdeliverin2020ontheearlysuccessofitsrestructuring.WhileBGis
7、exposedtothesamerisksasADM,weseeitsinternationaldiversificationasonepillarforpotentiallymorestabilitywithinthecommodity-intensesegments;thatsaid,BGlacksasizeableandhigher-marginsegmentcomparedtoADM.WithgrowingdemandfromChinaandAfrica,NorthandSouthAmericawill
8、bethe“naturalsuppliers”ofagriculturalproducts:Inthatparticularcontext,weseeADMandBGbestpositionedtoleveragetheirlogisticscapabilitiestoactuallybringingredientsfromfarmerstoconsumers.Actinginasus
