全球互联网与媒体：聚焦音乐.docx

《全球互联网与媒体：聚焦音乐.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、FOCUSGlobalInternet&Media:FocusonmusicShelterfromthestormThisisoureighthannualin-depthreportonthemusicindustry.Wemostlyupdateourglobalrecordedandpublishingforecasts(7.8%2019A-24ECAGRforrecordedINDUSTRYUPDATEEuropeanMediaPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch29June2020alnrtenI-

2、detcitrsReand8.1%2019A-24ECAGRforpublishing)butwealsolookatfurtheropportunities(emergingmarkets,priceincreases,newplatforms)andexistingrisks(moremoneytoartists,streamingmovingfrommusictoaudio).Wealsopublishothermusicnotestoday:(1)InitiationonWarnerMusic,(2)anin-depthlooka

3、tSpotify’spodcastopportunity,(3)ourmonthlymusictrendproductthatshowstheindustry’sresilienceinQ2,and(4)aVivendinoteupgradingourforecastsandsum-of-theparts.Wearepositiveonthegrowthprospectsofthemusicindustry.WeareOverweightVivendi(PT€25.00)andSpotify(PTUS$300),andEqualWeigh

4、tWarnerMusic(PTUS$28.00).Recordedmusicforecasts:Ournewforecastsfortheworldwiderecordedmusicmarketarebasedonfourmethodologiesthatwedevelopinthisreport.Weestimatethemarketgrows6.0%in2020E(impactedbyCovid-19)and12.6%in2021E,withgrowthgentlydeceleratingto5.9%in2024E.Thistrans

5、latesintoa7.8%2019A-24ECAGR.WealsoforecastmoreorlessstablerecordedmarketsharebothforUniversalMusicandWarnerMusic.Musicpublishingforecasts:Ournewforecastsfortheworldwidepublishingmusicmarketarebasedondifferentgrowthratesformechanicalandsynchronisation/performance.Weassumet

6、hatmechanicaldeclines5%andthatsynchronisation/performancegrowsatc.10.0%.Weestimatethemarketgrows3.3%in2020E(impactedbyCovid-19)and10.8%in2021Ewithgrowthgentlydeceleratingto8.4%in2024E.Thistranslatesintoan8.1%CAGRover2019A-24E.InitiatingonWarnerMusic:OurUSMediateamhasiniti

7、atedonWMGwithanEqualWeightratingandUS$28.00pricetarget(SingfortheMoment,29June2020).Weseethemusiclabelbusinessasastructurallyresilientindustry,andastheonlylistedpureplaybusinesswebelieveWMGshouldtradeatapremiumtocontentpeers.IndepthonthepodcastopportunityforSpotify:OurUSI

8、nternetteamhaspublishedadeepdivetoseeifSpotify’srecentrallyonthebackofanumberofpodcastdealsmakes