亚太地区量化与系统化策略：把握香港私有化趋势.docx

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacificAPACQuantitative&SystematicStrategySeizingontheHKprivatisationtrendQuantitative

2、QuantStrategyFigure1:PrivatisationdealshavepickedupinHongKongSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,Factset,CreditSuisseAflurryoftake-privatedeals.Thereisarecordnumberofprivatisation

3、dealsinHongKong(14inthepast12months),withstocks+29%onannouncementonaverage.Webelievethewaveofprivatisationsissettocontinueaslongasvaluationsremaindepressedandchallengingoperationalenvironmentsacceleratelarge-scalecorporaterestructurings.Themanyfacetsofprivatisationdeals.Westudied83pastpr

4、ivatisationstounderstandthedealmotivationsandcharacteristicsofthetargets.FittingaGaussianMixtureModelonthedatasethelpsuscondensethecommonalitiesandhighlightthreemainprivatisationthemes–Corporatestreamlining,Operationalrestructuring,andmainlyBargain-hunting/seekA-sharesrelisting.Screening

5、forprivatisationtargets.Screeningbasedonattributesofpastprivatisationtargetscanprovideaninformed‘first-take’onhighlightingpotentialcandidates.NamespickedupbyourscreenscanbefoundonFigure24toFigure27.Wealsopresentouranalysts’takeonselectednamestohighlightstockspecificconsiderationsthatcanb

6、echallengingtopickupfromquantitativescreenings.ResearchAnalystsElitaLai85221017089elita.lai@credit-suisse.comWillStephens85221017079will.stephens@credit-suisse.comDaveYin85221016325dave.yin@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTI

7、FICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldFocuschartsandtableFigure2:PrivatisationdealshavepickedupinH

8、ongKongFigure3:Dealannouncementreturnsare+29%onaverageSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,Factset,CreditSuisseSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,Factset,CreditSuisseFigure4:YTDHongKongprivatisationdeals(highlightedonesarependingcompletion)TickerNameAnn.DateStatus