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1、COREU.S.Small&MidCapBiotechnology2H20CatalystPreviewsforFATE,INDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch1July2020REPL,XNCR,andYMABWeareaddingtoouranalysisof2HcatalystswithpreviewsforFATE,REPL,XNCRandYMAB—addingtoourprior112Hcatalystspreviews.Weseeasignificantlevelofupsidefor:1)FATEonup
2、datedstemcelldata(+30-40%upside)whichcouldtransformhowwethinkaboutcellulartherapyforcancer—weviewFate’sapproachaspotentiallyhighlydisruptive,2)REPLontheirupdatedPhase2dataincutaneoussquamous-cellcarcinoma(+40%upside)—whichouranalysisandKOLopinionsuggestispotentiallypractic
3、echanging.Seebelowforourdetailedanalysesandestimatesofstockmovementsaroundthese2Hcatalysts.FATE(OW,$40PT):2H20–Wewouldliketoseeresponseratesinorabovethe20-35%rangeforFT516inhematologicalmalignancieswithafavorablesafetyprofile.Weassigna60%probabilityofsuccesstopositivedata,
4、andbelievethestockcouldbeup30-40%anddown30%onnegativedata.AsapointofreferenceforFT516,weareinitiallyprojectingpeakprobabilityadjustedsalesofapproximately$580mnby2030–seeourpreviewonpage4.REPL(OW,$25PT):YE20–WeexpectupdatedPhase2dataforRP1+nivolumabinCSCCtoshowamaintainedOR
5、Rabove60%,withahighCR≥30%,andsafetytoremainfavorablewithamanageabletoxicityprofile.Weassigna60%likelihoodtopositiveresults,potentiallydrivingthestockup40%,whilenegativeresultscoulddrivethestockdown20%.ForRP1inCSCC,weprojectpeakprobability-adjustedsalesof~$200mnby2027,or$11
6、ofour$25pricetarget–seeourpreviewonpage6.XNCR(UW,$28PT):2H20–WeexpectinitialclinicaldataforXmAb18087(SSTR2xCD3)todemonstrateamanageabletoxicityprofilewithlowratesofGrade3-4AEsandinitialsignsofactivity–eventuallyanORRof15%.WebelievethatpositivedataforXmAb18087(SSTR2xCD3)in2
7、H20is50-60%likely,whichcoulddrivethestockup5-10%,whilenegativedatacoulddrivethestockdown10%.ForXmAb18087,weprojectpeakprobabilityadjustedsalesofapproximately$200mnby2031–seeourpreviewonpage9.YMAB(OW,$50PT):2H20–SIOP2020(October14-17)–WeexpectinitialPhase1doseescalationdata
8、forGD2xCD3bispecificantibodyinGD2+tumorstodemonstrateinitialefficacy,noCNStoxicityandlitt
