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1、MappingtheNewNormalConsumersandChina'sStay-HomeEconomyWeseethreetrendsaheadforChineseconsumptionafterCovid-19:reshoring,consolidation,andupgrading.WeexpectreshoringtoliftdomesticconsumptionbyaboutUS$100bnperyearin2021-23,boostingthekeyluxury,beauty,sportswear
2、,andtravelandleisurecategoriesbyaround10%.RobinXing,JennyZheng,andZhipengCaiareeconomistsandarenotopiningonanysecurities.Theirviewsareclearlydelineated.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldb
3、eawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclo
4、sureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyare
5、searchanalystaccount.MMMappingtheNewNormalConsumersandChina'sStay-WHomeEconomyeseethreetrendsaheadforChineseconsumptionafterCovid-19:reshoring,consolidation,andupgrading.WeexpectreshoringtoliftdomesticconsumptionbyaboutUS$100bnperyearin2021-23,boostingthekeyl
6、uxury,beauty,sportswear,andtravelandleisurecategoriesbyaround10%.Steadyconsumptionrecoveryamidtheriseofthe"stay-home"economy:WeexpectChina'sprivateconsumptionIndustryViewIn-Linebrandawareness.(3)MoreMNCsadoptingan"inChina,forChina"strategy,inviewofthenation
7、'sboomingconsumptionmarketwithadditionalsupportfromreshoring,aswellaspolicy-toresumeitspre-Covidgrowthtrendof8%YoYbyyear-end,andreachexceptionallystronggrowthof10.5%in2021.Inadditiontocyclicaldriverssuchaspolicyeasing,reopeningofservicesectors,andtheunleashin
8、gofpent-updemand,thestructuraltrendofreshoringamidslowbalizationshouldfosterdomesticconsump-tionoverthenextfewyears.Weestimatethatreshoredcon-sumptioncouldamounttoUS$140-165bnthisyearandU
