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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、IndonesiaIndonesiaBanksSectorStormsubsiding:PolarisedperformanceBanks
3、SectorReviewFigure1:2019-21ENIM(LHS)vsCoC(RHS)trend—Big4banksandBBTN20192020E2021E20192020E2021E5.14.44.86.25.96.56.45.56.14.84.14.83.43.13.37.06.0NIM(%)5.04.03.02.01.0BMRIBBCABBRIBBNIBBTN
4、400350NetCoC(bp)300250200150100500ResearchAnalystsAndriNgaserin622125537917andri.ngaserin@credit-suisse.comGregoriusGary622125537911gregorius.gary@credit-suisse.comSource:Companydata,CreditSusiseestimatesWebelievethatriskstobankshaveselectivelyreduced,withbetterevidencethatcorporatel
5、oanbooksarelessaffectedthantheMSMEsegmentintermsofassetquality.Indonesia’sGooglemobilitytrendsuggeststhateconomicactivityisgatheringpace,withthegovernment’sstimulustransmissiontopickupin3Q20.Ourconfidencehasgrownonthegovernment’sincreaseineasingandpolicystance,andwebelieveexpectations
6、onselectiveIndonesianbankscanbebeaten.ButtheROErecoverytrendwouldbepolarised,withBBCAexpectedtoperformbestonsustainablefundingcostdiscountvs.theSOEBig-3.Abetterrestructuringtrendandpotentialupsidesurprisesfrompolicymakers.Thekeyevidenceisthebetterrestructuringtrend,especiallyforBMRI,a
7、ndthatrestructuringapplicationshavetaperedoff.Whiletheeconomicgrowthappearsfarfrompre-COVID-19level,thisdoesmeanthatpreviouscreditcost/NPLassumptionsweretoohighandforBBCAandBMRIweseematerialupsidetoconsensusEPSestimates.Inaddition,ourconfidenceinBIhasrisensignificantlyandwebelieverupi
8、ahvulnerabilitycanbedefendedwell,usingIndonesia’slowexternaldebtratioandMMT;tothatend,BIhasengagedinmoreaggressivemonetarytools.Wherethiscouldbeinterestingfor2021-24isthatCOVID-19hasbeenthenecessaryexcusetoacceleratereforms.Tothatend,weareoptimisticontheOmnibusLaw(tobepassedin3Q20)and
9、FDIreformforfixingIndonesia’sCADproblemovertime.Thisformsastrongmacrofoundationtoinducegrowthfor2021.Stockcalls.FortheBig-4banks,basedonsurprisecapacityandcompetitiveness,wepreferBBCA(significantcostoffundadvantage)followedbyBMRI,bothwithOUTPERFORMratings,duetolikelyupsidesurprisesont
10、heirl
