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1、EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesManagedCare2Q20Preview:Q2LikelyaHighWatermark;Commentsabout2H20/2021WillBeImportantManagedCare
3、Quarterly■WeExpectaStrongQuarterforMCOs,ConsistentwithorAheadofExpectations,asCOVID-19DrivenHealthcareDeferralsWillBenefitResu
4、lts.UNHwillbethefirstmanagedcarecompanytoreportQ2earningsonJuly15th,settingthetoneforthegroup.Basedonintra-quarterMCOcommentaryandourhospitalsurveys,webelievemedicalcosttrendsandMLRsinQ2weremateriallyreducedsequentiallyandY/Y.■2Q20ExpectationsSetforANTM,CN
5、C&HUM.Intra-quarter,Anthem,Centene,andHumanahaveprovidedfurtherdetailsontheirexpectationsfor2Q2020EPSresults.Specifically,ANTMexpectstogenerateapproximately70%ofitsadjustedEPSin1H20,implying2Q20EPSofapproximately$9.13.AtitsInvestorDayinmid-June,CNCindicate
6、dthatitexpectsQ2revenuestobebetween$27.3-27.6billionandadjustedEPStobe$2.35-$2.45,implyingCNCwillachieve67%ofitsfullyearadjustedEPSguidein1H20.DuringavirtualinvestorhealthcareconferenceinearlyMay,HUMindicatedthat“then”2Q20consensusEPSestimateof$7.27(rangin
7、gfrom$6.00-$9.55)waslowandthatitwouldlooktothehighendofestimatesasabetterproxy.AtaninvestorhealthcareconferenceinearlyJune,HumanareiterateditsbeliefthattheconsensusEPSestimatesremained“toolow”withrespecttohowtheutilizationandspendingpatternswereunfolding.A
8、tthatevent,Humanaindicatedthatits2Q20EPSwouldbenorthof$10.■CompanyCommentaryRegardingQ2Utilization:ANTMhasindicatedthat30-40%ofitsannualmedicalexpenseisrelatedtonon-emergentdeferrableprocedures.InApril,ANTMsawa70-80%declineinnon-emergentcareandadeclineof30
9、-40%inERvisits.Thecompanycontinuedtoseeadeclineinnon-emergentproceduresinMay,however,notassteepasApril.Pre-authorizationswerealsoindicatedtobeupinMayvs.April.InJune,ANTMwasseeingasequentialincreasefromMaybutstilladeclineonaY/Ybasis.Cignasaysitsawa30%reduct
10、ionincostsfromdeferralsinthefirstfewweeksofApril.ThecompanynotedthatinthelastfewdaysofAprilandintoMay,ithadstartedtoseesomesignsofelectiveservicesreturning.CNCexperiencedasignificantdecreaseinnon-inpatientuti
