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ID:56968852
大小:542.77 KB
页数:38页
时间:2020-07-29
《北美能源公用事业:水的估值很高,但是否已经过热了.docx》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、CORENorthAmericaPower&UtilitiesWatervaluationsarehot,buthaveINITIATINGCOVERAGEEquityResearch15July2020theyboiledover?WeinitiatecoverageonAWKandWTRGwithEqualWeightratings:Watervaluationshaveseeminglylostallcorrelationtoelectricandgasutilities,asthegroupP/Emultiplehasexpandedtoa~10-turnpremium.
2、However,weseelittleevidenceofthespreadcontractingnearterm,asweviewinvestorexpectationsasreasonableandnear-termearningsheadwindsasscarce.Increasingrelianceonratecasesthroughouttheforecastperiodrepresentthelargestsector-wideriskfactorthroughour2022forecasthorizon,butcustomerbilloffsetsexistforsom
3、e,andoverallcustomerbillinflationappearspalatable.ScarcityvalueandESGnarrativelikelytodrivepremiumforforeseeablefuture,inourview:Regardlessoffundamentalsimilaritiestoelectricandgasutilitycounterparts,weexpectthewaterpremiumtopersistasscarcityandindexcompositiondriveownershipdiversityandsupportw
4、atervaluationsfortheforeseeablefuture.WaterutilitiesalsobenefitfromtheirlackofelectricgenerationexposurethatdisqualifiessomeutilitiesonESGscreens,andweseeincreasedenvironmentalregulationonwaterqualitycoupledwithfairmarketvaluelegislationasaddingacompellingqualitativeESGnarrativeasinvestor-owned
5、waterutilitiesprovideneededfinancingforcash-strappedpublicagencies,particularlyfollowingtheimpactofCOVID-19onpublicbudgets.RecentexecutionandindustrytailwindslikelymeanEPSCAGRsmoderatesomewhat,butgrowthbacklogandvisibilitystillexceedelectricpeers:AWKandWTRGpossessuniquescalethatpositionbothtopl
6、ayleadingrolesinanationalwaterinfrastructurereplacementcycleintheUS.Chronicunder-investmentinwaterinfrastructurehasledtheAmericanSocietyofCivilEngineerstoestimatethat$1tnoftotalinfrastructurespendingisneededoverthecoming25yearstorepairandreplaceaginginfrastructure.Themarketpositiondominanceisun
7、matchedintheelectricutilityspace(NEEisprobablyclosestwithNEER).Weseethescaleadvantageandreputationforbest-in-classmanagementprovidinggreaterconfidenceandvisibilityintocapitaldeploymentandgrowth.Externalfinancingneedslikelyincrease
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