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时间:2020-08-01
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1、ChapterTwelveUncertainty不确定性StructureStatecontingent(随机的)consumption或者叫不确定性条件下的消费)Preferencesunderuncertainty(不确定性条件下的偏好)Attitudestowardrisk(对待风险的态度)State-contingentbudgetconstraint(不确定性条件下消费的预算约束)Choiceunderuncertainty(不确定性条件的选择)Diversificationandriskspreading(风险分散)UncertaintyisPervas
2、ive(不确定性是普遍的)Whatisuncertainineconomicsystems?(在经济体系中哪些是不确定的?)tomorrow’sprices(明天的价格)futurewealth(未来的财产)futureavailabilityofcommodities(未来商品的可获得性)presentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.(现在和未来的人们的其他活动)UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatarerationalresponsestouncertainty?(什么是人们对待不确定性的理性反应?)buyingins
3、urance(health,life,auto)(买保险)aportfolioofcontingent(随机的)consumptiongoods.(对所购买的商品进行组合消费)StatesofNaturePossiblestatesofNature:(自然状态)“caraccident”(a)“nocaraccident”(na).Accidentoccurswithprobabilitya,doesnotwithprobabilityna;a+na=1.Accidentcausesalossof$L.Contingencies(或有费用)Acontrac
4、timplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccursisstate-contingent.(保险合同的规定)E.g.theinsurerpaysonlyifthereisanaccident.ContingenciesAstate-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.(“意外消费”只有当某种状态发生时才能进行)E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.(比如,只有
5、当不发生事故时才能度假)PreferencesUnderUncertainty(不确定性下的偏好)2statesofnature(两种自然状态)Atprobabilitya,consumptioniscaAtprobabilityna,consumptioniscnaa+na=1.UtilityisU(ca,cna,a,na).(这就是不确定性条件消费的效用。)PreferencesUnderUncertaintyExpectedutilityfunction(预期效用函数:表示某种状态下的加权平均)Von-Neuman-Morgensternutili
6、tyfunction(又称为冯.诺依曼-摩根斯顿效用函数)Positiveaffine(仿射的)transformation(可以作单调变换)v(u)=au+b,a>0PreferencesTowardRisk(对待风险的偏好)RiskaverseRiskneutralRisklovingThinkofalottery.(考虑博采)Win$90withprobability1/2andwin$0withprobability1/2.U($90)=12,U($0)=2.Expectedutility(期望效用)isPreferencesTowardRiskThinko
7、falottery.Win$90withprobability1/2andwin$0withprobability1/2.Expectedmoneyvalue(期望的美元值)ofthelotteryisPreferencesTowardRiskPreferencesUnderUncertainty(不确定性条件下的偏好)EU=7(期望效用)andEM=$45(期望货币).U($45)>7$45forsureispreferredtothelotteryrisk-aversion(规避风险).U($45)<7thelotteryispreferredto$4
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