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1、PropertyDevelopmentIndustryinChina28July2020PropertysalesperformancehitbottominFeb.2020;salesrecoveryisexpectedtocontinuein2H2020.Inthefirstfewmonthsof2020,theCOVID-19pandemiccastashadowovertheeconomyinChina,withtherealestatemarketinChinaexperiencingshort-termdownsidepressure.SincelateJan
2、.2020,manylocalgovernmentsinChinasuspendedpropertysalesactivitiesandpostponedconstructioncommencementofmanypropertyprojectsduetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Asaresult,commodityhousingsalesamountinJan.-Feb.2020declinedby35.9%YoY.SinceMar.2020,wehaveseencustomervisitsandpropertysalesresumingtoaconsi
3、derabledegreeweekbyweek,especiallyinhigher-tiercitiesaroundkeyurbanclusterssuchastheYangtzeRiverDeltaandtheGreaterBayArea.During1H2020,commodityhousingsalesamountdroppedby5.4%YoY,indicatingstrongsalesrecovery.Inthemedium-to-longterm,webelievetheimpactislikelytoeaseasthepandemichasbeeneffe
4、ctivelycontrolledinChinaasaresultofstrictmeasuresimplementedbytheChinesegovernmenttocontainthespreadofCOVID-19,aswellasincentivemeasurestakentoboosttheeconomy.Figure1:CumulativeHouseSalesAmountinChinaFigure2:CumulativeHouseSalesGFAinChina18,000RMBbn16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002
5、,0000AmountSoldofCommodityHouses(LHS)AmountSoldofResidentialHouses(LHS)AmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHouses(RHS)AmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHouses(RHS)50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%2,000Mnsq.m.1,7501,5001,2501,0007505002500GFASoldofCommodityHouses(LHS)GFASoldofResidentialHouses(LHS)GFA
6、SoldofCommodityHousesYTDYoY(RHS)GFASoldofResidentialHousesYTDYoY(RHS)40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%Source:theNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,GuotaiJunanInternational.Source:theNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,GuotaiJunanInternational.PropertySector房地产行业Propertyindustrypoliciesaree
7、xpectedtoremainstable.The2020GovernmentWorkReportmentionedthat"Housesareforlivinginandnotforspeculativeinvestment"(房住不炒)and"Targetedpoliciesshouldbeimplementedonacity-by-citybasis"(因城施策).Thatis,theChinesegovernmentwillnotusethereal-estateindustryasatoolforshort-term
