管理统计学ppt课件.ppt

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1、SlidesPreparedbyJOHNS.LOUCKSSt.Edward’sUniversityUpdatedbyChenWeihuaChapter8IntervalEstimationLearningobjectivesKnowhowtoconstructandinterpretanintervalestimateofapopulationmeanand/orapopulationproportion.Understandtheconceptofasamplingerror.Beabletouseknowledgeofasamplingdistributiontomakep

2、robabilitystatementsaboutthesamplingerror.Understandandbeabletocomputethemarginoferror.Learnaboutthetdistributionanditsuseinconstructinganintervalestimateforapopulationmean.Beabletodeterminethesizeofasimplerandomsamplenecessarytoestimateapopulationmeanand/orapopulationproportionwithaspecified

3、levelofprecision.[------------------------------------------][------------------------------------------][------------------------------------------]Chapter8IntervalEstimationIntervalEstimationofaPopulationMean:Large-SampleCaseIntervalEstimationofaPopulationMean:Small-SampleCaseDeterminingt

4、heSampleSizeIntervalEstimationofaPopulationProportionIntroductionConsiderthefollowingstatements:x=550Asingle-valuedestimatethatconveyslittleinformationabouttheactualvalueofthepopulationmean.Weare99%confidentthatisintheinterval[449,551]Anintervalestimatewhichlocatesthepopulationmeanwithinanar

5、rowinterval,withahighlevelofconfidence.Weare90%confidentthatisintheinterval[400,700]Anintervalestimatewhichlocatesthepopulationmeanwithinabroaderinterval,withalowerlevelofconfidence.抽样推断抽样推断的概念：抽样推断是在抽样调查的基础上，利用样本的实际资料计算样本指标，并据以推算总体相应数量特征的一种统计分析方法抽样推断抽样推断的内容：参数估计假设检验抽样推断抽样推断的特点：抽样推断是由部分推断整体的

6、一种认识方法抽样推断是建立在随机取样的基础上抽样推断是运用概率估计的方法，而不是确定的数学分析法抽样推断的误差可以事先计算并加以控制PointEstimateAsingle-valuedestimate.Asingleelementchosenfromasamplingdistribution.Conveyslittleinformationabouttheactualvalueofthepopulationparameter,abouttheaccuracyoftheestimate.ConfidenceIntervalorIntervalEstimateAnintervalo

7、rrangeofvaluesbelievedtoincludetheunknownpopulationparameter.Associatedwiththeintervalisameasureoftheconfidencewehavethattheintervaldoesindeedcontaintheparameterofinterest.TypesofEstimators参数估计的基本知识参数估计的条件：要有合适的统计量作为估计量要有合理的允许误差范围（准确性）抽样误差抽样极