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1、华中科技大学博士学位论文基于灰色系统理论和云模型的反精确洪水灾害分析姓名：陈玥申请学位级别：博士专业：系统分析与集成指导教师：王乘2010-06-03
华中科技大学博士学位论文和可靠性。(4)针对国外计算生命损失经验模型的局限性，具体分析导致生命损失的各种影响因素的不确定性，选取起决定作用的三个因素，即洪水强度、预警时间、人们对洪水危害性意识程度，合理划分构成的15种洪水灾害情景的组合模式，按照国内外经验确定洪水灾害生命损失率推理规则，运用表达信息不确定性的云模型来将其定性概念量化建模，然后对定量的待估样本按该规则做定性的推理，得到定性、定量的综合推
2、理。(5)为了克服传统白化权函数的局限，将表示信息模糊性和随机性的定性、定量转换的云模型引入灰色白化权函数的表达，对传统白化权函数进行改进，建立基于灰色云模型的白化权函数，用灰色云聚类模型来对洪水灾害损失进行等级评估。并以1989～1990年间我国部分省市发生的45个洪水灾害的灾情案例作为评估实例，对待估样本进行基于变权、定权的灰色云聚类，得到灾情评估结果，证实了该方法的实用性。关键词：洪水灾害系统，不确定性，反精确分析，灰色理论，云模型，软计算II
华中科技大学博士学位论文AbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofChina
3、'seconomyandtheacceleratingprocessofurbanization,theflooddisasterhasconstrainedtheeconomicandsocialsustainabledevelopment,threatenedthelifeandpropertysecurity,andimpededtheprocessofharmonioussocialdevelopment.Accordingtotheuncertainty,thehi-dimensional,complex,openanddynamiccha
4、racteristicsoftheflooddisastersystem,fromasystemsciencepointofview,flooddisastersystemisadynamiccomplexsystem.Thereisnodoubtthatforthecontrolandmanagementofthiscomplexsystem,whetherclassicalcontroltheory,ortraditionaloperationsresearchtechniques,willencounterdifficulties.Inthis
5、article,basedonthecomprehensiveintegrationofqualitativeandquantitativemethods,thesystemsciencetheoriesandtheanti-accuracytechniquebasedongraytheoryandcloudmodeletc.areintroducedintheuncertaintystudyofflooddisastersystem.Inaddition,theintegratedanalysisapproachforthesimulation,p
6、redictionandevaluationofflooddisasterhasbeensystematicallyexplored,fortheestablishmentofuncertaintysystemtheory,anti-accuracymethodandtechnologysystemforflooddisasteranalysis.Thisprovidesthescientificbasisforeffectivecontrolandmanagementofflooddisasterinordertoharmoniouslydevel
7、opsocialeconomics.Specifically,thearticlebasedontheanti-accuracymethodofthegraytheoryandcloudmodelforanalysisoftheuncertaintyoftheflooddisastersystems,includingdisasterprediction,mid-andlong-termrunoffforecasting,reasoningoflifeloss,andcomprehensiveassessmentofdisasterlevel.The
8、mainresearchcontentsandresultsareasfollows:(1)Sortedou
