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1、GlobalResearch10October2018USAutos–Q3PreviewEquitiesStillSearchingfortheBottomAmericasAutomobilesColinLangan,CFAQ3lookinglikeQ2–morecutscoming,butcutsappearpricedinAnalystSimilartoQ2,theQ3setupforautosischallenging.LVproductionwas~4%worsecolin.langan@ubs.comthanexpected(seeFi
2、gure6),fxheadwindsrising,Chinatariffstakingeffect,anddiesel+1-212-7139949mixdeclining~8%.Wehavealreadyseenfourguidancecuts–CON,BWA,BMW,&GeneVladimirov,CFADLPH.FallingChinasalesarethemostpressingconcernwithIHS'sFYglobalproductionAssociateAnalystest.alreadydown~1%.Consequently,
3、wehaveadjustedour2019EPSest.downonlygene.vladimirov@ubs.com~6%toreflecttheseheadwinds.ThisimpliesFY2018guidanceriskformostsuppliers+1-212-713-1091(LEA,MGA,TEN,&VC).Thatsaid,ourestimatecutsaresignificantlylowerthanthe~22%averagedeclineinthesectoroverthelast90days.Whoisthebesta
4、ndworstpositionedinQ3?IntoQ3,weonlyseeDANbeating,helpedbyitslowChinaexposure.WhileweexpectADNT,LEA&DLPHtomiss,webelievemarketexpectationsaretoolowfollowingtheir20-30%declinesinthelast3months,andthereforeallcouldoutperformfollowingresults(seeFig3).ThefocuswillbeonthedeclineinJ
5、VincomeatADNT,thesizeofthelikelyguidecutatLEA,&thedriversoftheH2marginweaknessatDLPH.WeexpectFordtomissQ3,butholdalreadylowFYguidance.WeexpectGMtobeaboutin-lineinQ3andalsoholdFYguide.Whatcangetthesectormovingagain?Therearetwomajorrisksthatlikelycontributedthemosttothe22%decli
6、neinautosoverthelast3months–Chinaandtraderisks.Chinasaleshavefallen3-7%inJune-AugustrisingconcernsaboutglobalsalesweaknessanddrivingunderperformanceinChinaleverednames(seeFig4).Thisaddedtoexistingglobaltradeconcerns.However,thepositiveprogressonNAFTAincreasesourconfidencethat
7、trademaybelessimpactfulthanexpected.Whilewehaveloweredourvaluationmultiplestoreflecttheserisks,weareoptimisticthesectorcouldbouncebackifaChinastimulusisrevealedand/orautotradenegotiationsmakepositiveprogress.Valuation:MaintainBuyratingsonF,GM,ADNT,BWA,&TENWehaveloweredourvalu
8、ationmultiples~0.5-1.0xonconcernsaboutslowingglobalproduction;howeve
