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1、UnderstandingKeyEconomicIndicatorsInthesetimesarketforcesappearincreasinglyplicatedandmorevolatile,itisallthemoreimportanttounderstandtheprofessionaljargonandterminologyinthemarketplaceinordertobeabletobettermakeourinvestmentandbusinessdecisions.Underst
2、andingkey-economicindicatorsakingprocess,providingasnapshotofthecurrentsituationandaninsightintothefuture.Eacheconomicindicatortellsussomethingabouttheeconomyorinflation.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)isprobablythemostimportantreportasitistheeicindicatorsfall
3、under.Usingthetextbookformulaption+Investment+GovernmentSpending+Exports-Imports,someoftheindicatorsentionedcategorye.g.retailsalesfiguresption,constructionspendingunderinvestment,tonameafeyitselfratherthantheponent,e.g.employmentfigures,leadingindicato
4、rs,moneysupplyfigures(M3).Inflationfigures,ProducePriceIndex(PPI)andtheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)usofthechangesiner(retail)goodsandservicesrespectively.Anindicatorthatisusefulmustbeaccurate,timelyandreliable.Itdependsentirelyontheintegrityofthenationalstat
5、isticalsystemresponsible.Itisvitaltoknoindfulofthelimitationofthesestatisticalfigurestoo.Someindicatorscanbehistoricorextremelyvolatile,andthereforetheirvaluearereduced.Itisbettertoparethemostrecentdataonths,ortakeamovingaverageforthepast3,6or12monthsto
6、smooththedata.Itelinessofanindicatorisalsosignificant.Althoughthereportedfiguresareimportant,itiscrucialtorecognisethatmarketsreacttothevariancetotheconsensusforecastthantotheabsolutechangeintheindicator.Marketsdonotlikesurprisesandcanbefrustratedberspu
7、blished,eventhoughsignificanceoftheabsolutenumberdiminishesonth.IntheUS,togetheronthlyemploymentreportreleasedonthefirstFridayofthemonth,animportantsurveybyUSNationalAssociationofPurchasingManagement(NAPM)isreleasedonth,icmovementsfairlyanyasvaluableadj
8、uncttothemerceDepartment’sindexofleadingindicators.TheIndexofLeadingEconomicIndicators(LEI)intheUSactsasanearly,tellingusyisabouttochangedirection.Thispositeindexof11leadingindicatorshasagoodrecordofprovidingaccurateforecasts.The
