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1、PleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportDEEPDIVEGLOBALG10INTERESTRATES
2、ECONOMICSGlobalinflationupdate:LatestviewsandtradesWefindinflationbreakevenstooloweverywhere,exceptintheUK:§IntheUS,risingcoreandheadliney/yinflation,tradetensions,signsofwageinflation,andcheapvalu
3、ationofTIPSsupportTIPSbreakevenshere–onemayconsiderlongTIPSJan-26breakevenwithpositivecarry.§InEurope,theanticipatedriseineurozonecoreinflation,whichlikelybeganwithOctober’scoreinflationdata,andhighheadlineinflationshouldIntermsofrealyields,globalmonetarypolicytighteningshouldallowrealratestorise
4、everywhere,althoughmuchoftherisemayhavetakenplaceintheUSalready:§IntheUS,realyieldsledthemovetohigherUSrates,with5yTIPSattheirhighestyieldlevelsince2009.§InEurope,therealdepositrateisexpectedtoriseonlyafterQ12019,basedonourforecasts,butsomeupwardpressurescould250200150100500Fig.1:Global10ybreake
5、vensbpbpEUR10yBEIUS10yBEIUK10yBEI(rhs)340320300280260240220200allowEURbreakevenstopushhigher.Anewtradeforconsideration:longOATei-27breakevens.§IntheUK,inflationbreakevenslookhigh.Withcarryturning,webelievethisisanopportuneemergewithstronggrowthandtheapproachoftheendofECBQE.§IntheUK,assumingasmoo
6、thBrexit,weexpectrealyieldstojumphigherin2018/2019,withuncertaintylifting,growthJan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Source:BNPParibasFig.2:Globalcoreinflationforecasts%EURCoreCPI(y/y)USDCoreCPI(y/y)GBPCoreCPI(y/y)3.002.75momenttofadethisrichness.AsBrexitremainsuncertain,wefavourhedgingtheshortversusEUR
7、inflation,whichalsomaximisescarry.§InJapan,10ybreakevenshavecheapenedbackto40bp,whichweseeascheaprelativetothecurrentrateofinflation.improvingandexpectationformoreBankofEnglandratehikesthanarecurrentlypriced.§InJapan,theimpactofenergypricesoninflation-linkedbondsshouldnotbeignored.Whiletheconsump
8、tiontaxhikedoesnotlookpricedinyet,itmaytaketimeforthemarkettopricein.2.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.252.482.191.71Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Source:BNPParibasShahidLadha,HeadofStrategyforG10RatesAmeri
