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1、我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应王方方李宁广东财经大学国家海洋局摘要：研宄A标:财政政策对产业结构优化的时变性影响。研宄方法:构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型，进而通过三维脉冲响应展开时变性分析。研究发现:财政政策对产业结构优化确实产生了时变效应，在经济衰退时期，应该增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比，结合小幅度减税、提高营业税和消费税占比;在经济平稳时期，应该减少税收、提高营业税占比、降低增值税占比，结合小幅度增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比、降低一般公共服务支出占比;在经济高涨时期，应该增加财
2、政支出、提高科技支出和投资性支出占比，结合小幅度减税、提高所得税占比、降低营业税占比。研宄创新:应用时变参数计量模型研究了财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应。研究价值:有助于重新认识财政政策与产业结构优化的关系。关键词：时变参数;财政政策;产业结构优化;基金：国家社科基金重大项目“提高发展平衡性、包容性和可持续动力机制研究”（项目批准号：15ZDC012）的资助TheTime-varyingEffectsofFiscalPolicyonIndustrialStructureOptimizationinChinaWang
3、FangfangLiNingGuangdongUniversityofFinance&Economics;SOA;Abstract：ResearchObjectives:Thetime-varyingeffectsoffiscalpolicyonindustrialstructureoptimizationaretestedinthispaper.ResearchMethods:Weconstructafactor-augmentedvectorautoregressivemodelwithtime-varyingc
4、oefficientsandstochasticvolatility,andmakethreedimensionalimpulseresponsesbasedonthismodcLResearchFindings:Thcfiscalpolicyindeedmakestime-varyingeffectsonindustrialstructureoptimization.Whenitisintheperiodofeconomicrecession,weshouldincreasefiscalexpenditure,in
5、creasetherateofinvestmentexpenditure,andreducetaxrevenue,increasetherateofbusinesstaxandconsumptiontax.Inthestableeconomyperiod,weshouldreducetaxrevenue,increasetherateofbusinesstax,reducetherateofvalue-addedtax,andincreasefiscalexpenditure,increasetherateofinv
6、estmentexpenditure,andreducetherateofgeneralpublicserviceexpenditure.Tntheperiodofeconomicprosperity,weshouldincreasefiscalexpenditure,increasetherateoftechnologyexpenditureandinvestmentexpenditure,andreducetaxrevenue,increasetherateofincometax,reducetherateofb
7、usinesstax,whichisbeneficialtopromotingindustrialstructureoptimization.ResearchInnovations:Adoptatime-varyingparametermodeltostudythetime-varyingeffectsoffiscalpolicyonindustrialstructureoptimization.ResearchValue:Itishelpfultore-understandtherelationshipbetwee
8、nthefiscalpolicyandindustrialstructureoptimization.Keyword：Time-varyingParameter;FiscalPolicy;IndustrialStructureOptimization;一、引言与文献综述在过去的十几年里，我国经济分别经历了高速增长与增速下滑阶段，尤其在我国进入经
