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1、HowaNear-EarthObjectImpactMightAffectSociety9January2003ClarkR.Chapman,SwRI,BoulderCOUSACommissionedbytheGlobalScienceForum,OECD,for"WorkshoponNearEarthObjects:Risks,Policies,andActions,"January2003,Frascati,ItalyAbstractThehazardofimpactsbymeteoroids,asteroids,andcometsranginginsizefrommet
2、erstokilometersshouldbeamatterofpracticalconcerntopolicymakersinmanynations.Atworst,theveryunlikelycaseofa3kmasteroidstrikingEarthcouldsendcivilizationintoanewDarkAge;thiscase–withapotentialdeathtollofabillionormore–hasanannualizedfatalityratecomparabletootherserioushazards,likeearthquakeso
3、rairlinecrashes.Ataminimum,theincreasingrateofdiscoveriesofNearEarthAsteroidscombinedwithmediasensationalismwillsurelyalarmthepublicandbringtheissueofthispotentiallysolvablehazard(e.g.bydeflectinganapproachingasteroidawayfromtheEarth)tothedesksofresponsibleemergencymanagementofficials.Inthi
4、sreport,sixrepresentativecasesofasteroidimpactscenariosaredescribedinpracticalterms,withimplicationsthatvaryfornationsofdifferentsizes,proximitytooceancoastlines,andothercharacteristics.Somecases,meritingconcernandadvancepreparationformitigation,arecertaintohappeninthiscentury;othersarequit
5、eunlikely,butsufficientlydangerousthatresponsibilitydictatesthattheyshouldbeevaluatedtodeterminetheappropriatepriorityofpreparingforsuchanevent.Thesixcasesaredescribedintermsoftheanticipateddevastation,theprobabilityofhappening,thelikelywarningtime,theopportunities(ifany)forpost-warningmiti
6、gation,thenatureofpost-impactcrisismanagement,andtheopportunitiesforadvancepreparation.Finally,someimportantissuesarediscussed:theroleofthemediaandpublicperceptionofaninherentlynon-intuitivebutalarminghazard,theunusualscientificuncertaintiesassociatedwithpredictingimpacts,internationalovers
7、ightofasteroiddeflectiontechnologies,andapostSept.11thperspectiveontheimpacthazard.Adevastatingimpactislikelytomanifestitselfasthecompoundedeffectsofvariousfamiliarnaturalhazards,includingtsunami,earthquakes,windstorms,fires,andexplosions.Therefore,thead