三峡工程建设对洞庭湖区生态环境的影响

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1、2004—2010wascollected，usingexcelsoftwarethroughtraditionals‘a‘isticalmethodstocalculatethechangetrendoftheChenglingjiflowcalendaryearwaterlevelfrom10，thechangeofthewaterlevelfluctuationsduringtheyearandvariationrulesofeachmonththewaterlevel，thecorrelationanalysiswasdoneandfoundt

2、hatregulationoftheThreeGorgeswaslittleeffectontheaverageannualwaterlevelanddischarge，itreducechangesofthewaterlevelfluctuationduringtheyearofDongtingLake，thatthemaximumwaterlevelwas10werinthefloodseason，andthewaterlevelhasincreasedcomparedwithbeforeoperationinthedryseason．Second

3、ly,basedonthesedimentandrunoffdataofDongtingLakefrom1990—2009，thetraditionalstatisticalmethodsandtimeseriesanalysismethodsisusedtoobtainedtheannualsedimentloadandannualrunoffofDongtingLakeovertheyearschangesinthelaw,andtheestimatedmodelisbuilttoobservedtheDongtingLakesedimentloa

4、dandrunoffchangesinshort—term．TheresultsobtainedthattheannualsedimentloadofDongtingLakeisdroprapidlyandtheannualn-lnoffofDongtingLakedecreaseobviouslysincethenormaloperationoftheThreeGorgesReservoirin2003．Bycomparisonofgoodnessoffitandpredictivevalueofrelativeerror,obtainedaresu

5、ltthatthebestpredictionmodelofsedimentloadandannualrunoffofDongtingLakeisARIMA(O，1，2)andARIMA(1，1，1)．UsingMeasuredvaluesin2009asthevalidationVdata．therelativeerrorofthemeasuredandpredictedvalueswere11．11％and16．09％，andthemeasuredvaluesallinthepredictivevalueof95％confidenceinterva

6、l．Throughproving，ARIMAmodeltopredictgoodresultsanditcanbeappliedasaneffectivetoolforshort—termpredictionoftheannualsedimentloaddataandrunoffdata．ThroughForecasting，theannualsedimentloaddataofDongtingLakefrom2010to2012is198．55，1132．64and1068．96；TherunoffdataofDongtingLakefrom2010

7、to2012is2027．36，1996．68and1962．86．Thirdly,usingRS＼GIStoolstogettheclassificationofremote。ofdifferentoeriods，andextractthewetlandlandscapesenslnl乏imagesotdltterentperloclsanaextractmeweuanalanoscape，typesandvegetationinformation，usingthelandscapeindicesanddynamicmodelstogetquanti

8、tativeanalysisofthelandscapepatterncharacterist