具有延迟的森林可燃物湿度模型的研究

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1、Abstract。IheforestfueliSthematerialbasisofforestburning．Whenaforestcatchesfire，Theforestfuel，weather，terrainandotherconditionsarecombinedtoproducea=I，arietyoffirebehavior．Forestfuelmoistureisoneofthemostimportantindicatorstoforestfiredangerrating，fireforecasting，planningburning，firesu

2、ppressionmethodsandstrategieschoosing，andthefirefightingoperationsafety．Hencetheresearchofforestfuelmoisturechangeplaysaveryimportantroletopreventforestfirefromhappeningandcontrolthespreadofforestfire．mchangesofforestfuelmoisturearerelatednotonlytotheinitialmoisturecontentoffuel，butal

3、sotothemoisturechangesoftheirmeteorologicalenvironment．Inthepast，suchresearcharecarriedoutassume、析mthatthemeteorologicalfactorsarealwaysunchanged．Butthefactisthattheinfluencesofmeteorologicalfactorsdoexisting．111einfluenceisveryactiveandithassomedelayonforestfuelmoisture．Tobuildadelay

4、ingfuelmoisturemodeltostudytheissueisnecessary．ItwillhelpUStostudytheissueinarealtimepattemandwillhaveverypracticalsignificanceandproduceverygreatapplicationvalue．BasedonthefieldobservationdataofApril，2008andApril，2009、7l，ithForestryBureauofHanJiaYuanZi，Heilongiiang，throughanalysis，se

5、tupafuelmoisturemodelwhichcouldbeusedtopredictthemoisturechangesinrealtime，themodelisbasedonthreedifferentialequation，conclusionsasfollows：Basedonfactoranalysis，temperature，relativehumidityand、析ndspeedofsometimewerechoseasmodelfactors．Withthefirstsetoffactorofonemoment，buildamodelIand

6、throughtest，theaccurateratereaches97％．Withtwosetsoffactoroftwomoment，buildamodel

7、Iandthroughtest，theaccurateratereaches98％．Withthreesetsoffactorofthreemoment，afteradjustmodelll，wegotmodelⅢ，andtheaccuraterateofmodelHIcouldreachto98．5％．Itcouldreflecttherelationshipbetweenthechangeoffact

8、orsandchangeofthehumidityverywell．Theresultsshowthat：ModelIIisbetterthanmodelI，andmodelIIIisbetterthanmodellI，hencethemodelIlIcouldbeusedtoforecastthemoistureintheend．Keywords：fuel；watercontent；equilibriummoisturecontent；model；delay．n．1绪论1．1前言森林，是一个高密度树木覆盖的区域。这些植物群落覆盖着全球的大部分面积并且对二氧化碳的

9、下降、动物