09营销管理预测与决策实训

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1、CHHnSaHUiHaTiTUTE口FTECHHOL口管理曙枕《管理预测与决策》实轲報告班级：09市场营销2班学号：020309217姓名：张振民指导教师：丁沧海开课时间：2011至2012学年第丄学期实训项目：实训一：误差分析实训二：集合意见法、中位数四分点法实训三：一次指数平滑实训四：趋势移动数据实训五：一次指数平滑及误差分析实训六：二次指数平滑模拟分析系统实训七：三次指数平滑模拟分析系统实训实训八：季节水平模型实训九：季节交乘模型实训十：季节迭加模型实训十一:：一元回归模型的建立及分析实训十二：课本练习一元冋归模型实训十三：多元回归模型的建立及分析实训十四：规划

2、模型实训十五：排列图、直方图实训十六：控制图实训一：误差分析1误差分析：(见excel)AlIUIJ[U[JU]AIVI11IX1预测误差分析23序号实际值预测值预测误差百分误差误差绝对值绝对百分误差误差平方Xx'ePE(%)

3、e

4、

5、PE

6、(%)e2131030.828.52.37.467532.37.4675324685.29141125.728.73-11.673311.673151759151230.928.42.58.090612.58.0906148876.25161331.528.72.88.888892.88.8888888897.84171428.12

7、9-0.9-3.20280.93.2028469750.81181530.828.91.96.168831.96.1688311693.61191629.529.10.41.355930.41.3559322030.16201729.829.10.72.348990.72.3489932890.4921183029.20.82.666670.82.6666666670.64221929.929.30.62.006690.62.0066889630.36232031.529.32.26.984132.26.9841269844.84242127.629.5-1.9-6.

8、8841.1.96.8840579713.61252229.929.30.62.006690.62.0066889630.36262330.229.40.82.649010.82.6490066230.64272430.329.50.82.640260.82.6402640260.64282530.829.61.23.89611.23.8961038961.44292628.829.7-0.9-3.1250.93.1250.81302730.829.61.23.89611.23.8961038961.44312832.229.72.57.763982.57.76397

9、51556.25322931.2301.23.846151.23.8461538461.44333025.430.1-4.7-18.5044.718.5039370122.093431平均误差(ME)平均百分误差(MPE)平均绝对误差(MAE)平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)均方差(MSE)误差标准差(SDE)35320.972.851.906.425.362.323633当a=0.1时,平均误差(ME)为0.97,平均百分误差(MPE)为2.85,平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.90,平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)6.42,均方差(MSE)为5.36,误差标准差(SDE)为2

10、.32o2序号实际值预测值预测误差百分误差误差绝对值绝对百分误差误差平方3XePE(%)

11、e

12、

13、PE

14、(%)e210725.730.2-4.5-17.50974・517.5097276320.2511832.12&83・310・280373.310・2803738310.8912929.129.8-0.7一2・40550.72・4054982820.49131030.829.61・23・8961041・23.8961038961・44141125.730-4.3一16・73154.316.7315175118.49151230.928.72.27.1197412.27

15、.11974114.84161331.529.32.26・9841272.26・9841269844.84171428.130-1.9一6・761571・96・7615658363.61181530.829.41・44.5454551.44・5454545451.96191629.529.8-0.3-1.016950.31.0169491530.09201729.829.70.10.335570.10.335570470.0121183029.80.20.6666670.20・6666666670.04221929.929.80・10・3344480