2015数学建模美赛c

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1、StudiesbasedontheEbolavirusAbstract:BasedontherealityofEbola,wesolvedthefollowingfourquestions.l

2、.Next,wegetthenumberofthepeopleinfectedof2004-2025years,andgettheexpressiony?byusingthefittingmethod.Basedontheaboveresults,weusethemethodoffittingagain,byfittingthenumberofpatientsfrom1977to2025.Weusethedataof1977・2025andtheGraypredictionmodeltogetthey5(=387.284

3、).Bycomparing乃withy°wecanseethatthetwoexpressionsarebothexponentialdistribution,thusverifythatourhypothesisiscorrect.Finally.bycalculatingthedifferentialof)，3,thechangeofrateofthepeopleinfectedfrom2006to2025wasobtained,andtheexpression)『isy3,=1.3xlO,6x4/9.2xlO18-27397x3/25OO+3271

4、5x2-434O4OOOx+2.2xlO102.Forthesecondquestion,weestablishaparametermodel.andassumethefactorswhichinfluencethenecessityofdevelopadrugastheidealformofparameters.Underthekindsofidealhypothesis,relationshipsofinfluenceandconstraintamongfactorscanbeobtained.Byanalyzingtherelationshipso

5、fthesefactors,wedrawablockdiagramtoshowourmodel.UsethelawofpopulationgrowthofthenaturetoestimatethedeadlineoftheR&Dofthenewdrug.TaketheEbolavirusinthequestion1forexample,weoutputthetrendofthenumberofthevirusafterusingthenewdrugbyusingsomeassumedconditionsandthedeadlineis2025.3eFo

6、rthethirdquestion,taketheEbolavirusforexample,andanalysisthefactorswhichmakeinfluenceontheenthusiasmofthepharmaceuticalenterprises.Takethecurrentandlong-termintoaccount,simplifythemodelandreflecttheinfluentialfactionsatthesametime,andanalysistheconclusion,proposaltherewardpolicyt

7、oimprovetheenthusiasmofthecompanies.4eForthelastquestionjfwewantthegovernmenttoselectthesuitableenterprises,weshouldfindthereasonthatexistenceofthecontradictions.bythismeans,asthebreakthroughpointjnakeaspecificplanandstep^andfinally,chosetheenterpriseweneed.Keywords：Greypredictio

8、nmodel;Interpolation;Fitting;Parametrich