research on optimal scale of china's foreign exchange reserves based on adjusted agarwal modelresearch on optimal scale of china's foreign exchange reserves based on adjusted agarwal model论文

《research on optimal scale of china's foreign exchange reserves based on adjusted agarwal modelresearch on optimal scale of china's foreign exchange reserves based on adjusted agarwal model论文》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文ResearchonOptimalScaleofChina'sForeignExchangeReservesBasedonAdjustedAgarwalModel姓名：温甜申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：门明201105摘要外汇储备是一个国家国际清偿力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要的影响。从2006年，我国就成为世界上持有外汇储备最多的国家。而且近年来我国的外汇储备呈现出了快速增长的趋势。根据国家外汇管理局发布的数据，2010年底，我国的外汇储备已经达到了28473．38亿美元。因为外汇

2、储备规模对一国的经济发展有重要意义，所以产生了许多相关的理论和模型。由于阿格沃尔模型在测定发展中国家的最佳外汇储备规模上的优势，本文选取了这个模型，并且根据中国的经济现状对阿格沃尔模型进行了调整。本文选取了1994年到2009年的相关经济数据和指标，运用修改后的阿格沃尔模型计算出我国外汇储备规模的最佳范围，将我国实际外汇储备规模与之比较，可以看出，我国的外汇储备从2002年开始就远远超过了适宜规模。如此巨大的外汇储备对我国的经济既有积极作用也有消极影响。面对巨额的外汇储备，我国政府应该注重风险管理，既要重视安全性又要重视收益性。科学有效的管理外

3、汇储备对于我国的经济发展有重要的意义。关键词：外汇储备，修改后的阿格沃尔模型，最优规模AbstractForeignexchangereservesaleimportanttoonecountry’SinternationalliquidityandalsohavegreatimpactOllbalanceofinternationalpaymentsandstabilityofexchangerate．Chinahasbeenholdingthelargestforeignexchangereservesintheworldsince2006

4、．Andinrecentyears，China’SforeignexchangerescgTvesappeararapidgrowthtendencyAccordingtothepublisheddatafromChina’SStateAdministrationofForeignExchange，China’sfo面印exchangereserveshavealreadybeen2．847338trillionU．S．dollarsbytheendof2010．Sincethescaleofforei盟exchangereservesisim

5、portanttothecountry’Seconomicdevelopment,alargenumberofrelatedtheoriesandmodelsemergedout．ConsideringtheadvantageofAgarwalmodelinthedeterminationofappropriatescaleofdevelopingcountries’foreignexchangereserves，thispaperchoosethismodelandadjustitaccordingtotheactualsituationof

6、China’Seconomy．Theauthorselectsthedataandindicesfrom1994to2009tostudytheoptimalscaleofChina’Sforei朗exchangereserves．Comparingtheestimatedoptimalscalewiththeactualscale，wecallseeChina’Sforeignexchangereserveshavebeenfarmorethanthemoderatesizesince2002．Suchlargeforeignexchange

7、reserveshavebothpositiveandnegativeimpactonChina’Seconomy．Facedwimsuchlargeforeignexchangereserves．thegovernmentshouldfocusonriskmanagementandcombinesafetyandprofitability．ThescientificandeffectivemanagementofforeignexchangereservesisveryimportanttoChina’Seconomicdevelopment

8、．Keywords：Foreignexchangereserves，AdjustedAgarwalmodel，optimalscaleI．Introd