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1、ThispageintentionallyleftblankCOUNTERFACTUALSANDCAUSALINFERENCEDidmandatorybusingprogramsinthe1970sincreasetheschoolachievementofdisadvantagedminorityyouth?Doesobtainingacollegedegreeincreaseanindi-vidualslabormarketearnings?DidtheuseofabutterflyballotinsomeFloridacountiesin
2、the2000presidentialelectioncostAlGorevotes?Simplecause-and-effectquestionssuchasthesearethemotivationformuchempiricalworkinthesocialsciences.Inthisbook,thecounterfactualmodelofcausalityforobserva-tionaldataanalysisispresented,andmethodsforcausaleffectestimationaredemonstrat
3、edusingexamplesfromsociology,politicalscience,andeconomics.StephenL.MorganisAssociateProfessorofSociologyandtheDirectoroftheCenterfortheStudyofInequalityatCornellUniversity.Hispreviouspublica-tionsincludeOntheEdgeofCommitment:EducationalAttainmentandRaceintheUnitedStates(20
4、05).ChristopherWinshipisDikerTishmanProfessorofSociologyatHarvardUni-versity.ForthepasttwelveyearshehasservedaseditorofSociologicalMethodsandResearch.Hehaspublishedwidelyinavarietyofjournalsandeditedvolumes.AnalyticalMethodsforSocialResearchAnalyticalMethodsforSocialResearc
5、hpresentstextsonempiricalandformalmethodsforthesocialsciences.Volumesintheseriesaddressboththethe-oreticalunderpinningsofanalyticaltechniquesaswellastheirapplicationinsocialresearch.Someseriesvolumesarebroadinscope,cuttingacrossanumberofdisciplines.Othersfocusmainlyonmethod
6、ologicalapplicationswithinspecificfieldssuchaspoliticalscience,sociology,demography,andpublichealth.Theseriesservesamixofstudentsandresearchersinthesocialsciencesandstatistics.SeriesEditors:R.MichaelAlvarez,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnologyNathanielL.Beck,NewYorkUniversityLawre
7、nceL.Wu,NewYorkUniversityOtherTitlesintheSeries:EventHistoryModeling:AGuideforSocialScientists,byJanetM.Box-SteffensmeierandBradfordS.JonesEcologicalInference:NewMethodologicalStrategies,editedbyGaryKing,OriRosen,andMartinA.TannerSpatialModelsofParliamentaryVoting,byKeithT.
8、PooleEssentialMathematicsforPoliticalandSocialResearch,byJeffGillPoliticalGameTheo